Pacos Ferreira 1-3 Famalicao – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Famalicao at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pacos Ferreira vs Famalicao fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Famalicao make the trip to Estádio da Capital do Móvel to face Pacos Ferreira in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Saturday 8 April 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Pacos Ferreira (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pacos Ferreira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio da Capital do Móvel, Pacos Ferreira have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Famalicao's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Famalicao have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Famalicao are 0.50 PPG clear of Pacos Ferreira in recent Primeira Liga fixtures (1.60 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Pacos Ferreira 1W, Famalicao 1W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with Famalicao winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Pacos Ferreira — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Famalicao — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacos Ferreira 45% versus Famalicao 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacos Ferreira 38% | Famalicao 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacos Ferreira 1.21 xG and Famalicao 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacos Ferreira attack 0.798 / defence 1.247 | Famalicao attack 1.097 / defence 1.188. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 1.011. Pacos Ferreira's attack strength of 0.798 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 60 Pacos Ferreira games / 60 Famalicao games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pacos Ferreira 33% | Draw 26% | Famalicao 41%. Fair-value odds: Pacos Ferreira 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Famalicao 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Famalicao as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Famalicao if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pacos Ferreira 50% | Famalicao 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacos Ferreira vs Famalicao | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estádio da Capital do Móvel • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Apr 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacos Ferreira 33% | Draw 26% | Famalicao 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Pacos Ferreira 1.21 / Famalicao 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Pacos Ferreira attack 0.798 / def 1.247 | Famalicao attack 1.097 / def 1.188 | league avg home 1.280 / away 1.011 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Pacos Ferreira xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Famalicao xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacos Ferreira vs Famalicao kick off?
Pacos Ferreira vs Famalicao kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 8 April 2023 at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
What was the final score in Pacos Ferreira vs Famalicao?
Pacos Ferreira 1 - 3 Famalicao.
Where is Pacos Ferreira vs Famalicao being played?
The match is being played at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
What competition is Pacos Ferreira vs Famalicao part of?
Pacos Ferreira vs Famalicao is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Pacos Ferreira vs Famalicao?
Our statistical model gives Pacos Ferreira a 33% chance of winning, Famalicao a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacos Ferreira vs Famalicao?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Pacos Ferreira and Famalicao will score (BTTS).
Will Pacos Ferreira vs Famalicao have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacos Ferreira and Famalicao?
Record (3 meetings): Pacos Ferreira 1W | Draws 1 | Famalicao 1W.
What form are Pacos Ferreira and Famalicao in?
Pacos Ferreira (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Famalicao (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Pacos Ferreira's attack at 0.80x the league average against Famalicao's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Famalicao's attack (1.10x) against Pacos Ferreira's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
33%
3.04
26%
3.80
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Pacos Ferreira xG
Total xG
2.60
1.38
Famalicao xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
8%
12.11
12%
8.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.3 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.5 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacos Ferreira vs Famalicao?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Pacos Ferreira and Famalicao expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Pacos Ferreira and 1.38 for Famalicao, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacos Ferreira vs Famalicao?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pacos Ferreira come into this having played 60 games, going 13W 16D 31L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-D. The sample for Pacos Ferreira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Famalicao sit at 1.20 PPG from 60 outings (19W 15D 26L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.92 PPG for Pacos Ferreira against 1.20 for Famalicao. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Pacos Ferreira's home form reads 7W 8D 15L across 30 games on their own ground, a 0.97 PPG return.
Away from home, Famalicao have taken 0.93 points per game from 30 outings (7W 7D 16L).
Attack vs Defence
Pacos Ferreira are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Famalicao are on 1.17 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacos Ferreira
Blended
Famalicao
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacos Ferreira and Famalicao in coming into this match?
Pacos Ferreira have gone 13W 16D 31L in their last 60 games (0.92 PPG), while Famalicao have gone 19W 15D 26L in their last 60 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacos Ferreira at home or Famalicao away?
Pacos Ferreira's home record (0.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacos Ferreira at home: 0.97 PPG; Famalicao away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Pacos Ferreira or Famalicao been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pacos Ferreira have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Famalicao in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Famalicao have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pacos Ferreira have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Famalicao — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Pacos Ferreira
1
Draws
2
Famalicao
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacos Ferreira and Famalicao?
From 4 meetings on record, Pacos Ferreira have won 1, Famalicao have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pacos Ferreira and Famalicao last play each other?
They last met on 8 April 2023, when Pacos Ferreira 1-3 Famalicao.
Who has won more matches between Pacos Ferreira and Famalicao?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pacos Ferreira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacos Ferreira 53%, Famalicao 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Pacos Ferreira) and 53% (Famalicao).
On the defensive side: Pacos Ferreira have failed to score in 37% of games; Famalicao in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacos Ferreira home games / Famalicao away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacos Ferreira play Famalicao?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Pacos Ferreira's recent matches and 53% of Famalicao's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pacos Ferreira vs Famalicao usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Pacos Ferreira's recent games and 53% of Famalicao's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pacos Ferreira and Famalicao tend to score early?
Pacos Ferreira have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Famalicao in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Famalicao cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Pacos Ferreira.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Famalicao beat Pacos Ferreira 1-3 at Estádio da Capital do Móvel, Regular Season - 27, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacos Ferreira 1.21 xG and Famalicao 1.38 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Famalicao outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacos Ferreira attack 0.80 / defence 1.25 against Famalicao attack 1.10 / defence 1.19, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacos Ferreira 33% | Draw 26% | Famalicao 41%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacos Ferreira 38%, Famalicao 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacos Ferreira's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Famalicao's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pacos Ferreira 0.92 PPG, Famalicao 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Famalicao win broke the near-deadlock. Pacos Ferreira (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Famalicao (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.