Chaves 0-2 Famalicao – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chaves at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chaves vs Famalicao fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 14 as Chaves welcome Famalicao to Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira. Kick-off is set for Friday 30 December 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Chaves have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Chaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, Chaves have gone 2W 4D 1L this season (7 games, 1.43 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Famalicao — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Famalicao's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Chaves have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Chaves trading profile (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Famalicao trading profile (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chaves 40% versus Famalicao 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chaves 33% | Famalicao 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chaves 1.30 xG and Famalicao 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chaves attack 0.823 / defence 1.025 | Famalicao attack 0.811 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.110. Data: 13 Chaves games / 47 Famalicao games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chaves 45% | Draw 28% | Famalicao 27%. Fair-value odds: Chaves 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Famalicao 3.70. Chaves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chaves as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chaves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Chaves 57% | Famalicao 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chaves vs Famalicao | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira • Kick-off: Friday 30 Dec 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chaves 45% | Draw 28% | Famalicao 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Chaves 1.30 / Famalicao 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Chaves attack 0.823 / def 1.025 | Famalicao attack 0.811 / def 1.154 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Chaves (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Chaves xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Famalicao xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chaves vs Famalicao kick off?
Chaves vs Famalicao kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 30 December 2022 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What was the final score in Chaves vs Famalicao?
Chaves 0 - 2 Famalicao.
Where is Chaves vs Famalicao being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What competition is Chaves vs Famalicao part of?
Chaves vs Famalicao is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Chaves vs Famalicao?
Our statistical model gives Chaves a 45% chance of winning, Famalicao a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Chaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chaves vs Famalicao?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Chaves and Famalicao will score (BTTS).
Will Chaves vs Famalicao have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and Famalicao?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chaves and Famalicao in?
Chaves (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Famalicao (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Chaves's attack at 0.82x the league average against Famalicao's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Famalicao's attack versus Chaves's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chaves Win
45%
2.22
28%
3.53
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Chaves xG
Total xG
2.22
0.92
Famalicao xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
18%
5.58
7%
13.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 10.0 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.0 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chaves vs Famalicao?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Chaves and Famalicao expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Chaves and 0.92 for Famalicao, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Chaves vs Famalicao?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chaves's recent record stands at 6W 4D 5L from 15 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Chaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Famalicao, meanwhile, have gone 5W 2D 8L across 15 games — 1.13 PPG, with L-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chaves on 1.47 PPG, Famalicao on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Chaves have managed 2W 4D 1L from 7 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Famalicao's away record stands at 0W 2D 5L across 7 trips, a 0.29 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.13 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Famalicao's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chaves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chaves are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Famalicao are on 1.13 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 15 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chaves
Blended
Famalicao
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chaves and Famalicao in coming into this match?
Chaves have gone 6W 4D 5L in their last 15 games (1.47 PPG), while Famalicao have gone 5W 2D 8L in their last 15 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chaves at home or Famalicao away?
Chaves's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chaves at home: 1.43 PPG; Famalicao away: 0.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Chaves's record when hosting Famalicao specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Chaves
1
Draws
2
Famalicao
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and Famalicao?
From 4 meetings on record, Chaves have won 1, Famalicao have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chaves and Famalicao last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2024, when Chaves 0-1 Famalicao.
Who has won more matches between Chaves and Famalicao?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Famalicao see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chaves 57%, Famalicao 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 14% for Chaves and 29% for Famalicao.
On the defensive side: Chaves have failed to score in 29% of games; Famalicao in 71%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chaves home games / Famalicao away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chaves play Famalicao?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Chaves's recent matches and 29% of Famalicao's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chaves vs Famalicao usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Chaves's recent games and 29% of Famalicao's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chaves and Famalicao tend to score early?
Chaves have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Famalicao in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Famalicao cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Chaves.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Famalicao beat Chaves 0-2 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, Regular Season - 14, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chaves 1.30 xG and Famalicao 0.92 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Chaves fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Famalicao outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chaves attack 0.82 / defence 1.02 against Famalicao attack 0.81 / defence 1.15, drawn from 13/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chaves 45% | Draw 28% | Famalicao 27%, with Chaves to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Famalicao win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chaves 33%, Famalicao 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chaves's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Famalicao's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chaves 1.47 PPG, Famalicao 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Famalicao win broke the near-deadlock. Chaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Famalicao (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.43 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.