Benfica vs Maritimo – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Benfica at 65% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Benfica vs Maritimo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Maritimo travel to to take on Benfica. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 February 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benfica stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Benfica haven't played a Primeira Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Benfica's home record at : 8W 2D 0L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at .
Head to Head
Benfica hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 4 previous encounters compared to 0 for Maritimo, with 0 draws in between.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2023, ended 3–0 with Benfica winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Benfica and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 4.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 2.12 xG and Maritimo 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.222 / defence 0.938 | Maritimo attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.127. Data: 34 Benfica games / 0 Maritimo games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Benfica 65% | Draw 20% | Maritimo 15%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.54 | Draw 5.00 | Maritimo 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benfica are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs Maritimo | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 65% | Draw 20% | Maritimo 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 52% | xG Benfica 2.12 / Maritimo 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.222 / def 0.938 | Maritimo attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Benfica (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Maritimo xG
52%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs Maritimo kick off?
Benfica vs Maritimo is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 14 February 2027.
What competition is Benfica vs Maritimo part of?
Benfica vs Maritimo is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs Maritimo?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 65% chance of winning, Maritimo a 15% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Maritimo?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Benfica and Maritimo will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs Maritimo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Maritimo?
Record (4 meetings): Benfica 4W | Draws 0 | Maritimo 0W.
What form are Benfica and Maritimo in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Benfica (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Benfica's attack at 1.22x the league average against Maritimo's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 2.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Maritimo's attack versus Benfica's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
65%
1.53
20%
5.08
15%
6.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Benfica xG
Total xG
3.02
0.90
Maritimo xG
1.53
65%
Home win
5.08
20%
Draw
6.73
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
12%
8.34
Win to Nil
27%
3.75
2%
56.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs Maritimo?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Benfica and Maritimo expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Benfica and 0.90 for Maritimo, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs Maritimo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Pre-Season
Maritimo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Benfica have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Dec 2021, when Benfica won 7-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Benfica's record when hosting Maritimo specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Benfica
0
Draws
0
Maritimo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Maritimo?
From 4 meetings on record, Benfica have won 4, Maritimo have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and Maritimo last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2023, when Maritimo 0-3 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and Maritimo?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / Maritimo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.