Wieczysta Kraków vs Widzew Łódź – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wieczysta Kraków vs Widzew Łódź fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Widzew Łódź travel to Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana to take on Wieczysta Kraków. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 March 2027, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Wieczysta Kraków have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wieczysta Kraków, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wieczysta Kraków's home record at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana: 1W 1D 3L from 5 Ekstraklasa appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Widzew Łódź — All Games: 0W 6D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Widzew Łódź have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.50 PPG (Wieczysta Kraków) versus 0.60 (Widzew Łódź). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Wieczysta Kraków register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Widzew Łódź in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Wieczysta Kraków, 0 for Widzew Łódź and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Wieczysta Kraków in-play tendencies (13 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games).
Widzew Łódź in-play tendencies (13 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wieczysta Kraków 69% and Widzew Łódź 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wieczysta Kraków 69% | Widzew Łódź 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wieczysta Kraków 1.38 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wieczysta Kraków attack 0.881 / defence 1.194 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.017 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.316. Data: 13 Wieczysta Kraków games / 47 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wieczysta Kraków 31% | Draw 29% | Widzew Łódź 40%. Fair-value odds: Wieczysta Kraków 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Widzew Łódź 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Widzew Łódź are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Wieczysta Kraków 80% | Widzew Łódź 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wieczysta Kraków vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wieczysta Kraków 31% | Draw 29% | Widzew Łódź 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 62% | xG Wieczysta Kraków 1.38 / Widzew Łódź 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Wieczysta Kraków attack 0.881 / def 1.194 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.017 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Wieczysta Kraków xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Widzew Łódź xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wieczysta Kraków vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Wieczysta Kraków vs Widzew Łódź is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
Where is Wieczysta Kraków vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What competition is Wieczysta Kraków vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Wieczysta Kraków vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wieczysta Kraków vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Wieczysta Kraków a 31% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wieczysta Kraków vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Wieczysta Kraków and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Wieczysta Kraków vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wieczysta Kraków and Widzew Łódź?
Record (1 meetings): Wieczysta Kraków 0W | Draws 1 | Widzew Łódź 0W.
What form are Wieczysta Kraków and Widzew Łódź in?
Wieczysta Kraków (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Wieczysta Kraków's attack at 0.88x the league average against Widzew Łódź's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Widzew Łódź's attack versus Wieczysta Kraków's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
31%
3.25
29%
3.44
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Wieczysta Kraków xG
Total xG
2.98
1.60
Widzew Łódź xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
20%
4.94
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
6%
16.05
10%
9.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.1 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.2 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.8 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wieczysta Kraków vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Wieczysta Kraków and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Wieczysta Kraków and 1.60 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Wieczysta Kraków vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 13 outings, Wieczysta Kraków have picked up 0.62 PPG on a 2W 2D 9L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Wieczysta Kraków is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Widzew Łódź's form line: 1W 8D 4L from 13 games, 0.85 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-L. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wieczysta Kraków on 0.62 PPG, Widzew Łódź on 0.85. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Wieczysta Kraków have posted 0.80 PPG from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L).
On the road, Widzew Łódź have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Wieczysta Kraków are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.31 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wieczysta Kraków have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Widzew Łódź in 69%.
Last 13 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wieczysta Kraków
Blended
Widzew Łódź
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wieczysta Kraków and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Wieczysta Kraków have gone 2W 2D 9L in their last 13 games (0.62 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 1W 8D 4L in their last 13 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wieczysta Kraków at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Widzew Łódź's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wieczysta Kraków at home: 0.80 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Wieczysta Kraków or Widzew Łódź been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wieczysta Kraków have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Widzew Łódź in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 18 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Wieczysta Kraków
1
Draws
0
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wieczysta Kraków and Widzew Łódź?
From 1 meetings on record, Wieczysta Kraków have won 0, Widzew Łódź have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wieczysta Kraków and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2026, when Widzew Łódź 2-2 Wieczysta Kraków.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wieczysta Kraków are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Wieczysta Kraków at 80%, Widzew Łódź at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Wieczysta Kraków and 60% for Widzew Łódź. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wieczysta Kraków home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wieczysta Kraków play Widzew Łódź?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Wieczysta Kraków's games and 80% of Widzew Łódź's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wieczysta Kraków vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Wieczysta Kraków's matches and 60% of Widzew Łódź's.
Do Wieczysta Kraków and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Wieczysta Kraków have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.