Wieczysta Kraków vs Pogon Szczecin – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wieczysta Kraków vs Pogon Szczecin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wieczysta Kraków host Pogon Szczecin at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 March 2027 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Wieczysta Kraków — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wieczysta Kraków, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wieczysta Kraków at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana this season: 1W 1D 3L from 5 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Pogon Szczecin have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Pogon Szczecin have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Pogon Szczecin — 1.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Wieczysta Kraków have won 0, Pogon Szczecin 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2026, ended 0–2 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Wieczysta Kraków in-play tendencies (13 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games).
Pogon Szczecin in-play tendencies (13 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wieczysta Kraków 69% and Pogon Szczecin 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wieczysta Kraków 69% | Pogon Szczecin 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wieczysta Kraków 1.11 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wieczysta Kraków attack 0.877 / defence 1.198 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.899 / defence 0.785. League average goals — home 1.606 / away 1.292. Pogon Szczecin's defence strength of 0.785 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 13 Wieczysta Kraków games / 46 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wieczysta Kraków 28% | Draw 31% | Pogon Szczecin 41%. Fair-value odds: Wieczysta Kraków 3.57 | Draw 3.23 | Pogon Szczecin 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pogon Szczecin are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Wieczysta Kraków 80% | Pogon Szczecin 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wieczysta Kraków vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wieczysta Kraków 28% | Draw 31% | Pogon Szczecin 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Wieczysta Kraków 1.11 / Pogon Szczecin 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Wieczysta Kraków attack 0.877 / def 1.198 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.899 / def 0.785 | league avg home 1.606 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Wieczysta Kraków xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Pogon Szczecin xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wieczysta Kraków vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Wieczysta Kraków vs Pogon Szczecin is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 13 March 2027 at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
Where is Wieczysta Kraków vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What competition is Wieczysta Kraków vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Wieczysta Kraków vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wieczysta Kraków vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Wieczysta Kraków a 28% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 41% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wieczysta Kraków vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Wieczysta Kraków and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Wieczysta Kraków vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wieczysta Kraków and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (1 meetings): Wieczysta Kraków 0W | Draws 0 | Pogon Szczecin 1W.
What form are Wieczysta Kraków and Pogon Szczecin in?
Wieczysta Kraków (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Wieczysta Kraków's attack rating (0.88) and Pogon Szczecin's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pogon Szczecin's attack versus Wieczysta Kraków's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
28%
3.63
31%
3.19
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Wieczysta Kraków xG
Total xG
2.50
1.39
Pogon Szczecin xG
3.63
28%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
7%
14.60
14%
7.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 11.5 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wieczysta Kraków vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Wieczysta Kraków and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Wieczysta Kraków and 1.39 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Wieczysta Kraków vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 13 outings, Wieczysta Kraków have picked up 0.62 PPG on a 2W 2D 9L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Wieczysta Kraków is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pogon Szczecin's form line: 7W 4D 2L from 13 games, 1.92 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Pogon Szczecin are the form team by 1.30 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Wieczysta Kraków.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Wieczysta Kraków have posted 0.80 PPG from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L).
On the road, Pogon Szczecin have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Wieczysta Kraków are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.62 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wieczysta Kraków have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Defensively: Pogon Szczecin in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wieczysta Kraków
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wieczysta Kraków and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Wieczysta Kraków have gone 2W 2D 9L in their last 13 games (0.62 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 7W 4D 2L in their last 13 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wieczysta Kraków at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Pogon Szczecin's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wieczysta Kraków at home: 0.80 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Wieczysta Kraków or Pogon Szczecin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wieczysta Kraków have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Pogon Szczecin in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wieczysta Kraków and Pogon Szczecin runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Wieczysta Kraków
0
Draws
1
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wieczysta Kraków and Pogon Szczecin?
From 1 meetings on record, Wieczysta Kraków have won 0, Pogon Szczecin have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wieczysta Kraków and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when Pogon Szczecin 2-0 Wieczysta Kraków.
Who has won more matches between Wieczysta Kraków and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wieczysta Kraków are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Pogon Szczecin see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wieczysta Kraków 80%, Pogon Szczecin 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Wieczysta Kraków and 40% for Pogon Szczecin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wieczysta Kraków home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wieczysta Kraków play Pogon Szczecin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Wieczysta Kraków's games and 40% of Pogon Szczecin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wieczysta Kraków vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Wieczysta Kraków's matches and 40% of Pogon Szczecin's.
Do Wieczysta Kraków and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Wieczysta Kraków have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.