Warta Poznań 0-2 Puszcza Niepołomice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Warta Poznań at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Warta Poznań vs Puszcza Niepołomice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Respect Energy plays host to Warta Poznań versus Puszcza Niepołomice in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Friday 10 November 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Warta Poznań have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Warta Poznań, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Warta Poznań's home record at Stadion Respect Energy: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Puszcza Niepołomice's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Puszcza Niepołomice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Puszcza Niepołomice's away record: 0W 1D 6L from 7 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.14 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 2.86 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Warta Poznań's favour (1.20 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Warta Poznań goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Puszcza Niepołomice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Warta Poznań 36% versus Puszcza Niepołomice 71%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Warta Poznań 21% | Puszcza Niepołomice 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Warta Poznań 1.76 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Warta Poznań attack 0.773 / defence 0.954 | Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.013 / defence 1.521. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.178. Warta Poznań's attack strength of 0.773 is below the league average — the 1.76 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Puszcza Niepołomice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.521 — this is suppressing Warta Poznań's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Warta Poznań games / 14 Puszcza Niepołomice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Warta Poznań 51% | Draw 26% | Puszcza Niepołomice 24%. Fair-value odds: Warta Poznań 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Puszcza Niepołomice 4.17. Warta Poznań hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Warta Poznań as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Warta Poznań if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Warta Poznań 40% | Puszcza Niepołomice 71% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Warta Poznań vs Puszcza Niepołomice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion Respect Energy • Kick-off: Friday 10 Nov 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Warta Poznań 51% | Draw 26% | Puszcza Niepołomice 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Warta Poznań 1.76 / Puszcza Niepołomice 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Warta Poznań attack 0.773 / def 0.954 | Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.013 / def 1.521 | league avg home 1.498 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Warta Poznań (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Warta Poznań xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Warta Poznań vs Puszcza Niepołomice kick off?
Warta Poznań vs Puszcza Niepołomice kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 10 November 2023 at Stadion Respect Energy.
What was the final score in Warta Poznań vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Warta Poznań 0 - 2 Puszcza Niepołomice.
Where is Warta Poznań vs Puszcza Niepołomice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Respect Energy.
What competition is Warta Poznań vs Puszcza Niepołomice part of?
Warta Poznań vs Puszcza Niepołomice is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Warta Poznań vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our statistical model gives Warta Poznań a 51% chance of winning, Puszcza Niepołomice a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Warta Poznań the favourite.
Will both teams score in Warta Poznań vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Warta Poznań and Puszcza Niepołomice will score (BTTS).
Will Warta Poznań vs Puszcza Niepołomice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Puszcza Niepołomice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Warta Poznań and Puszcza Niepołomice in?
Warta Poznań (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Puszcza Niepołomice (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Warta Poznań's attack rating (0.77) and Puszcza Niepołomice's defence rating (1.52), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Puszcza Niepołomice's attack (1.01x) against Warta Poznań's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 48/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Warta Poznań Win
51%
1.96
26%
3.91
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Warta Poznań xG
Total xG
2.90
1.14
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
17%
5.82
Win to Nil
16%
6.14
4%
24.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.0 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Warta Poznań vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Warta Poznań and Puszcza Niepołomice expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Warta Poznań and 1.14 for Puszcza Niepołomice, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Warta Poznań vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Warta Poznań come into this having played 14 games, going 4W 5D 5L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-W. The sample for Warta Poznań is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Puszcza Niepołomice sit at 0.71 PPG from 14 outings (2W 4D 8L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Puszcza Niepołomice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Warta Poznań carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Puszcza Niepołomice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Warta Poznań's home form reads 1W 3D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 0.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Puszcza Niepołomice have taken 0.14 points per game from 7 outings (0W 1D 6L). That's a step down from their 0.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Puszcza Niepołomice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Warta Poznań come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Warta Poznań are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Puszcza Niepołomice are on 1.14 scored and 2.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Puszcza Niepołomice in 71%.
Defensively: Warta Poznań have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Warta Poznań
Blended
Puszcza Niepołomice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Warta Poznań and Puszcza Niepołomice in coming into this match?
Warta Poznań have gone 4W 5D 5L in their last 14 games (1.21 PPG), while Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 2W 4D 8L in their last 14 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Warta Poznań at home or Puszcza Niepołomice away?
Warta Poznań's home record (0.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Warta Poznań at home: 0.86 PPG; Puszcza Niepołomice away: 0.14 PPG.
Have Warta Poznań or Puszcza Niepołomice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Warta Poznań have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Puszcza Niepołomice in 7%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Warta Poznań
0
Draws
2
Puszcza Niepołomice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Puszcza Niepołomice?
From 2 meetings on record, Warta Poznań have won 0, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Warta Poznań and Puszcza Niepołomice last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2024, when Puszcza Niepołomice 1-0 Warta Poznań.
Who has won more matches between Warta Poznań and Puszcza Niepołomice?
Puszcza Niepołomice have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Warta Poznań are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Puszcza Niepołomice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Warta Poznań 29%, Puszcza Niepołomice 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 14% (Warta Poznań) and 57% (Puszcza Niepołomice).
On the defensive side: Warta Poznań have failed to score in 57% of games; Puszcza Niepołomice in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Warta Poznań home games / Puszcza Niepołomice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Warta Poznań play Puszcza Niepołomice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Warta Poznań's recent matches and 71% of Puszcza Niepołomice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Warta Poznań vs Puszcza Niepołomice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Warta Poznań's recent games and 57% of Puszcza Niepołomice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Warta Poznań and Puszcza Niepołomice tend to score early?
Warta Poznań have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Puszcza Niepołomice in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Puszcza Niepołomice cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Warta Poznań.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Puszcza Niepołomice beat Warta Poznań 0-2 at Stadion Respect Energy, Regular Season - 15, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Warta Poznań 1.76 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 1.14 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Warta Poznań fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Puszcza Niepołomice outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Warta Poznań attack 0.77 / defence 0.95 against Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.01 / defence 1.52, drawn from 48/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Warta Poznań 51% | Draw 26% | Puszcza Niepołomice 24%, with Warta Poznań to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Puszcza Niepołomice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Warta Poznań 21%, Puszcza Niepołomice 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Warta Poznań's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Warta Poznań arrived the stronger side — 1.21 PPG against 0.71. Form was overturned, with Puszcza Niepołomice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Puszcza Niepołomice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.