Raków Częstochowa 1-4 GKS Katowice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Raków Częstochowa host GKS Katowice at Miejski Stadion Pilkarski Rakow in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 9 October 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Raków Częstochowa have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Raków Częstochowa's home record at Miejski Stadion Pilkarski Rakow: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Raków Częstochowa are significantly better at Miejski Stadion Pilkarski Rakow than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, GKS Katowice stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for GKS Katowice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GKS Katowice's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour GKS Katowice — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Raków Częstochowa register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, GKS Katowice in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Raków Częstochowa, 1 for GKS Katowice and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2025, ended 1–0 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Raków Częstochowa trading profile (42 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
GKS Katowice trading profile (42 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 64% versus GKS Katowice 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 57% | GKS Katowice 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.85 xG and GKS Katowice 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.077 / defence 1.361 | GKS Katowice attack 0.893 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.306. Data: 43 Raków Częstochowa games / 42 GKS Katowice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 41% | Draw 28% | GKS Katowice 31%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | GKS Katowice 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
Raków Częstochowa dominate the H2H record, yet GKS Katowice are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Raków Częstochowa at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form GKS Katowice (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.44 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Raków Częstochowa 70% | GKS Katowice 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Miejski Stadion Pilkarski Rakow • Kick-off: Friday 9 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 41% | Draw 28% | GKS Katowice 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 70% | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.85 / GKS Katowice 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.077 / def 1.361 | GKS Katowice attack 0.893 / def 1.119 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
1.59
GKS Katowice xG
70%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 9 October 2026 at Miejski Stadion Pilkarski Rakow.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice?
Raków Częstochowa 1 - 4 GKS Katowice.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice being played?
The match is being played at Miejski Stadion Pilkarski Rakow.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 41% chance of winning, GKS Katowice a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and GKS Katowice will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and GKS Katowice?
Record (4 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 3W | Draws 0 | GKS Katowice 1W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and GKS Katowice in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. GKS Katowice (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Raków Częstochowa's attack rating (1.08) and GKS Katowice's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, GKS Katowice's attack versus Raków Częstochowa's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
41%
2.41
28%
3.58
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
3.44
1.59
GKS Katowice xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.32
Clean Sheet
20%
4.89
16%
6.37
Win to Nil
8%
11.81
5%
20.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.4 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and GKS Katowice expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 1.59 for GKS Katowice, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, Raków Częstochowa have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 16W 7D 19L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GKS Katowice's form line: 18W 8D 16L from 42 games, 1.48 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W. The sample for GKS Katowice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Raków Częstochowa on 1.31 PPG, GKS Katowice on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Raków Częstochowa have posted 1.41 PPG from 22 outings (9W 4D 9L).
On the road, GKS Katowice have gone 5W 5D 12L from 22 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.48 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of GKS Katowice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; GKS Katowice are on 1.60 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Raków Częstochowa have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
GKS Katowice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and GKS Katowice in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 16W 7D 19L in their last 42 games (1.31 PPG), while GKS Katowice have gone 18W 8D 16L in their last 42 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or GKS Katowice away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 1.41 PPG; GKS Katowice away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Raków Częstochowa and GKS Katowice runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 9 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Oct 2026, when GKS Katowice won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Raków Częstochowa's record when hosting GKS Katowice specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Raków Częstochowa
0
Draws
2
GKS Katowice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and GKS Katowice?
From 5 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 3, GKS Katowice have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and GKS Katowice last play each other?
They last met on 9 October 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 1-4 GKS Katowice.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and GKS Katowice?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
GKS Katowice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 54%, GKS Katowice 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Raków Częstochowa) and 54% (GKS Katowice).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; GKS Katowice in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / GKS Katowice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play GKS Katowice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 50% of GKS Katowice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 54% of GKS Katowice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and GKS Katowice tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, GKS Katowice in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant GKS Katowice run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Raków Częstochowa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GKS Katowice beat Raków Częstochowa 1-4 at Miejski Stadion Pilkarski Rakow, Regular Season - 10, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.85 xG and GKS Katowice 1.59 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Raków Częstochowa fell 0.9 short of their projected output. GKS Katowice outscored their 1.59 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.08 / defence 1.36 against GKS Katowice attack 0.89 / defence 1.12, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 41% | Draw 28% | GKS Katowice 31%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual GKS Katowice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 57%, GKS Katowice 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (42 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
GKS Katowice's trading profile (42 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Raków Częstochowa 1.31 PPG, GKS Katowice 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GKS Katowice win broke the near-deadlock. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. GKS Katowice (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.