Radomiak Radom 1-1 Slask Wroclaw – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Slask Wroclaw travel to Stadion Radomiaka to take on Radomiak Radom. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 February 2025, 13:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Radomiak Radom stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Radomiak Radom's home record at Stadion Radomiaka: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Slask Wroclaw — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Slask Wroclaw have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Radomiak Radom are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Radomiak Radom, 2 for Slask Wroclaw and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 7 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.6 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2024, ended 2–1 with Radomiak Radom winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Slask Wroclaw in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 49% versus Slask Wroclaw 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 53% | Slask Wroclaw 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.54 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.994 / defence 1.068 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.833 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.149. Data: 53 Radomiak Radom games / 53 Slask Wroclaw games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 48% | Draw 28% | Slask Wroclaw 24%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Slask Wroclaw 4.17. Radomiak Radom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Radomiak Radom are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 70% | Slask Wroclaw 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion Radomiaka • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Feb 2025, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 48% | Draw 28% | Slask Wroclaw 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.54 / Slask Wroclaw 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.994 / def 1.068 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.833 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.462 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Slask Wroclaw xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw kicked off at 13:45 on Saturday 8 February 2025 at Stadion Radomiaka.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw?
Radomiak Radom 1 - 1 Slask Wroclaw.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Radomiaka.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 48% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw?
Record (7 meetings): Radomiak Radom 3W | Draws 2 | Slask Wroclaw 2W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Radomiak Radom's attack at 0.99x the league average against Slask Wroclaw's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slask Wroclaw's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
48%
2.08
28%
3.56
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.57
1.02
Slask Wroclaw xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
17%
5.77
5%
19.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.1 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.02 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 53 outings, Radomiak Radom have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 16W 10D 27L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slask Wroclaw's form line: 19W 16D 18L from 53 games, 1.38 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Slask Wroclaw is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Radomiak Radom on 1.09 PPG, Slask Wroclaw on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Radomiak Radom have posted 1.08 PPG from 26 outings (7W 7D 12L).
On the road, Slask Wroclaw have gone 9W 8D 9L from 26 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 1.23 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 16W 10D 27L in their last 53 games (1.09 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 19W 16D 18L in their last 53 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Slask Wroclaw away?
Slask Wroclaw's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.08 PPG; Slask Wroclaw away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Radomiak Radom or Slask Wroclaw been keeping clean sheets recently?
Radomiak Radom have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Slask Wroclaw in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Slask Wroclaw specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Radomiak Radom
3
Draws
2
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw?
From 8 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 3, Slask Wroclaw have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Radomiak Radom 1-1 Slask Wroclaw.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 62%, Slask Wroclaw 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Radomiak Radom) and 46% (Slask Wroclaw).
On the defensive side: Slask Wroclaw in 35%; Radomiak Radom have failed to score in 27% of games; Slask Wroclaw in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Slask Wroclaw?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 46% of Slask Wroclaw's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Slask Wroclaw usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 46% of Slask Wroclaw's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Slask Wroclaw in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Radomiaka, Regular Season - 20, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.54 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.02 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 0.99 / defence 1.07 against Slask Wroclaw attack 0.83 / defence 1.06, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 48% | Draw 28% | Slask Wroclaw 24%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 53%, Slask Wroclaw 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.09 PPG, Slask Wroclaw 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.