Pogon Szczecin 4-3 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Radomiak Radom make the trip to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera to face Pogon Szczecin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pogon Szczecin have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pogon Szczecin have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera this season.
Radomiak Radom (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Radomiak Radom's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Pogon Szczecin. A 1.60 PPG lead over Radomiak Radom (2.10 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Pogon Szczecin lead 4W to 4W over the last 9 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Radomiak Radom — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pogon Szczecin 54% and Radomiak Radom 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 48% | Radomiak Radom 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.96 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 0.980 / defence 0.804 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.711 / defence 1.282. League average goals — home 1.563 / away 1.301. Radomiak Radom bring a strong defensive rating of 1.282 — this is suppressing Pogon Szczecin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Pogon Szczecin games / 45 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 63% | Draw 26% | Radomiak Radom 11%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.59 | Draw 3.85 | Radomiak Radom 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Pogon Szczecin (63%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 50% | Radomiak Radom 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 63% | Draw 26% | Radomiak Radom 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 48% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.96 / Radomiak Radom 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 0.980 / def 0.804 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.711 / def 1.282 | league avg home 1.563 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Radomiak Radom xG
48%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 24 October 2026 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom?
Pogon Szczecin 4 - 3 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 63% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 11% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom?
Record (9 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 4W | Draws 1 | Radomiak Radom 4W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Pogon Szczecin's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Radomiak Radom's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.96. Flip it around — Radomiak Radom's attack (0.71x) against Pogon Szczecin's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 44/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 1-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
63%
1.58
26%
3.87
11%
9.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.71
0.74
Radomiak Radom xG
1.58
63%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
9.38
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
14%
7.13
Win to Nil
30%
3.32
1%
66.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 9.7 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.4 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 0.74 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 44 outings, Pogon Szczecin have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 19W 9D 16L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Radomiak Radom's form line: 12W 13D 19L from 44 games, 1.11 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Pogon Szczecin against 1.11 for Radomiak Radom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Pogon Szczecin have posted 1.73 PPG from 22 outings (11W 5D 6L).
On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 2W 8D 12L from 22 away games — 0.64 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.11 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Radomiak Radom's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.27 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom in 66%.
Last 44 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 19W 9D 16L in their last 44 games (1.50 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 12W 13D 19L in their last 44 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.73 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 24 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won 4-0 on 4 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pogon Szczecin have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Pogon Szczecin
1
Draws
4
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom?
From 10 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 5, Radomiak Radom have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 24 October 2026, when Pogon Szczecin 4-3 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 59%, Radomiak Radom 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Pogon Szczecin) and 59% (Radomiak Radom). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Radomiak Radom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 64% of Radomiak Radom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 59% of Radomiak Radom's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pogon Szczecin edge out Radomiak Radom 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Radomiak Radom 4-3 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 12, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.96 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.74 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Radomiak Radom outscored their 0.74 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 0.98 / defence 0.80 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.71 / defence 1.28, drawn from 44/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 63% | Draw 26% | Radomiak Radom 11%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 48%, Radomiak Radom 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.50 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.