Nieciecza 3-2 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Piast Gliwice (50%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Nieciecza face Piast Gliwice.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza plays host to Nieciecza versus Piast Gliwice in Ekstraklasa (matchday 27). Kick-off: Monday 6 April 2026 at 12:15 UK time.
Current Form
Nieciecza's record over their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Nieciecza have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Piast Gliwice have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Piast Gliwice's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 0D 5L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Piast Gliwice are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Nieciecza's last 10 home games and Piast Gliwice's last 10 away games) — Nieciecza have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Piast Gliwice in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head sample leans to Piast Gliwice, who have 3 wins from 3 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2025, ended Nieciecza 2–4 Piast Gliwice — a Piast Gliwice win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Piast Gliwice have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 3.3 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading
Nieciecza half-time and goal-timing data (last 26 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Piast Gliwice half-time and goal-timing data (last 26 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nieciecza 69% and Piast Gliwice 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nieciecza 50% | Piast Gliwice 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nieciecza 1.09 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nieciecza attack 0.753 / defence 1.295 | Piast Gliwice attack 1.195 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 1.083. Nieciecza's attack rating of 0.753 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.09. Nieciecza's defence rating of 1.295 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Piast Gliwice's projected output up. Data: built from Nieciecza's last 26 games and Piast Gliwice's last 60.
Result probabilities: Nieciecza 24% | Draw 27% | Piast Gliwice 50%. Fair-value odds: Nieciecza 4.25 | Draw 3.74 | Piast Gliwice 2.01. Piast Gliwice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Piast Gliwice at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Nieciecza's last 10 home games and Piast Gliwice's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Nieciecza 60% (last 10 home games) | Piast Gliwice 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nieciecza vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 27 | Venue: Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza • Kick-off: Monday 6 April 2026 at 12:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nieciecza 24% | Draw 27% | Piast Gliwice 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Nieciecza 1.09 / Piast Gliwice 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Nieciecza attack 0.753 / def 1.295 | Piast Gliwice attack 1.195 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.413 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Nieciecza xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Piast Gliwice xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Nieciecza vs Piast Gliwice FAQs
What time does Nieciecza vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Nieciecza vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 12:15 UK time on Monday 6 April 2026 at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza.
What was the final score in Nieciecza vs Piast Gliwice?
Nieciecza 3 - 2 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Nieciecza vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza.
What competition is Nieciecza vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Nieciecza vs Piast Gliwice is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 27) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Nieciecza vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Nieciecza a 24% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 50% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nieciecza vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Nieciecza and Piast Gliwice will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Nieciecza vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Nieciecza's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Piast Gliwice's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. Flip it around — Piast Gliwice's attack (1.20x) against Nieciecza's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.68.
These ratings are built from Nieciecza's last 26 games and Piast Gliwice's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
24%
4.25
27%
3.74
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Nieciecza xG
Total xG
2.77
1.68
Piast Gliwice xG
4.25
24%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
19%
5.34
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
4%
22.70
17%
6.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.5 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Nieciecza vs Piast Gliwice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Nieciecza vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Nieciecza and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Nieciecza and 1.68 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Nieciecza vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 26 outings, Nieciecza have picked up 0.85 PPG on a 5W 7D 14L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Piast Gliwice's form line: 10W 5D 11L from 26 games, 1.35 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Piast Gliwice are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nieciecza.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Nieciecza have posted 0.77 PPG from their last 13 home games (2W 4D 7L).
On the road, Piast Gliwice have gone 5W 2D 6L from their last 13 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Piast Gliwice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Nieciecza are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.23 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nieciecza have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nieciecza
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Nieciecza (Home) vs Piast Gliwice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Nieciecza
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
❓ Nieciecza vs Piast Gliwice Form FAQs
What form are Nieciecza and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Nieciecza have gone 5W 7D 14L in their last 26 games (0.85 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 10W 5D 11L in their last 26 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nieciecza at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Piast Gliwice's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nieciecza at home: 0.77 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Nieciecza and Piast Gliwice, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 6 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nieciecza have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Piast Gliwice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Nieciecza
0
Draws
3
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Nieciecza vs Piast Gliwice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Nieciecza and Piast Gliwice?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Nieciecza have won 1, Piast Gliwice have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nieciecza and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 April 2026: Nieciecza 3-2 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Nieciecza and Piast Gliwice?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nieciecza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 69% for Nieciecza, 62% for Piast Gliwice — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Nieciecza) and 69% (Piast Gliwice). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nieciecza home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Nieciecza vs Piast Gliwice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Nieciecza and Piast Gliwice matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Nieciecza's games and 62% of Piast Gliwice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Nieciecza and Piast Gliwice matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Nieciecza's matches and 69% of Piast Gliwice's.
Do Nieciecza and Piast Gliwice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Nieciecza's recent matches and 77% of Piast Gliwice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nieciecza defy the odds to beat Piast Gliwice 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nieciecza beat Piast Gliwice 3-2 at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza, Regular Season - 27, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nieciecza 1.09 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.68 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Nieciecza beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nieciecza attack 0.75 / defence 1.29 against Piast Gliwice attack 1.20 / defence 1.03, drawn from 26/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nieciecza 24% | Draw 27% | Piast Gliwice 50%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Nieciecza win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nieciecza 50%, Piast Gliwice 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nieciecza's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Piast Gliwice arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.85. Form was overturned, with Nieciecza winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nieciecza (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.