Lech Poznan 2-1 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lech Poznan at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Radomiak Radom travel to Enea Stadion to take on Lech Poznan. The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 October 2024, 19:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Lech Poznan have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Lech Poznan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lech Poznan's home record at Enea Stadion: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Enea Stadion. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Enea Stadion this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Radomiak Radom stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Lech Poznan are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 1.60 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Lech Poznan, 1 for Radomiak Radom and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Lech Poznan trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Radomiak Radom trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lech Poznan 49% versus Radomiak Radom 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lech Poznan 47% | Radomiak Radom 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lech Poznan 2.03 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lech Poznan attack 1.133 / defence 0.777 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.881 / defence 1.225. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.171. Radomiak Radom bring a strong defensive rating of 1.225 — this is suppressing Lech Poznan's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Lech Poznan's defence rating of 0.777 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Lech Poznan games / 45 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lech Poznan 66% | Draw 20% | Radomiak Radom 14%. Fair-value odds: Lech Poznan 1.52 | Draw 5.00 | Radomiak Radom 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Lech Poznan (66%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lech Poznan as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Lech Poznan 40% | Radomiak Radom 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Enea Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lech Poznan 66% | Draw 20% | Radomiak Radom 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 48% | xG Lech Poznan 2.03 / Radomiak Radom 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Lech Poznan attack 1.133 / def 0.777 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.881 / def 1.225 | league avg home 1.464 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Lech Poznan (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Lech Poznan xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Radomiak Radom xG
48%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 19:15 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Enea Stadion.
What was the final score in Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom?
Lech Poznan 2 - 1 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Enea Stadion.
What competition is Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Lech Poznan a 66% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 14% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Lech Poznan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom?
Record (6 meetings): Lech Poznan 2W | Draws 3 | Radomiak Radom 1W.
What form are Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom in?
Lech Poznan (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lech Poznan's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Radomiak Radom's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.03. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Lech Poznan's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lech Poznan Win
66%
1.51
20%
4.97
14%
7.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Lech Poznan xG
Total xG
2.83
0.80
Radomiak Radom xG
1.51
66%
Home win
4.97
20%
Draw
7.25
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
13%
7.63
Win to Nil
30%
3.37
2%
55.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.2 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Lech Poznan and 0.80 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, Lech Poznan have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 22W 12D 11L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Lech Poznan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Radomiak Radom's form line: 14W 8D 23L from 45 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lech Poznan are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Radomiak Radom.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lech Poznan have posted 1.95 PPG from 22 outings (13W 4D 5L).
On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 7W 3D 12L from 22 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lech Poznan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lech Poznan are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.27 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Defensively: Lech Poznan have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lech Poznan
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Lech Poznan have gone 22W 12D 11L in their last 45 games (1.73 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 14W 8D 23L in their last 45 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lech Poznan at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Lech Poznan's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lech Poznan at home: 1.95 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Lech Poznan or Radomiak Radom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lech Poznan have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Radomiak Radom in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lech Poznan have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Nov 2025, when Lech Poznan won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lech Poznan's record when hosting Radomiak Radom specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lech Poznan
4
Draws
1
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom?
From 10 meetings on record, Lech Poznan have won 5, Radomiak Radom have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Radomiak Radom 1-3 Lech Poznan.
Who has won more matches between Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lech Poznan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lech Poznan 50%, Radomiak Radom 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lech Poznan) and 54% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Lech Poznan keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Radomiak Radom in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lech Poznan home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lech Poznan play Radomiak Radom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Lech Poznan's recent matches and 36% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lech Poznan's recent games and 54% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Lech Poznan have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lech Poznan edge out Radomiak Radom 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lech Poznan beat Radomiak Radom 2-1 at Enea Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lech Poznan 2.03 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.80 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lech Poznan attack 1.13 / defence 0.78 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.88 / defence 1.23, drawn from 46/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lech Poznan 66% | Draw 20% | Radomiak Radom 14%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lech Poznan 47%, Radomiak Radom 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lech Poznan's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.11. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.