Jagiellonia 1-0 Wisla Plock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jagiellonia at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 12 as Jagiellonia welcome Wisla Plock to Stadion Miejski w Białymstoku. Kick-off is set for Sunday 25 October 2026 at 13:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Jagiellonia have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jagiellonia's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski w Białymstoku this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wisla Plock stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Plock's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Jagiellonia) versus 1.40 (Wisla Plock). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Jagiellonia have won 2, Wisla Plock 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Mar 2026, ended 1–2 with Wisla Plock winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Jagiellonia in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
Wisla Plock in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jagiellonia 64% versus Wisla Plock 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 64% | Wisla Plock 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.59 xG and Wisla Plock 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 0.894 / defence 1.221 | Wisla Plock attack 0.870 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.588 / away 1.307. Data: 44 Jagiellonia games / 44 Wisla Plock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 40% | Draw 29% | Wisla Plock 31%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Wisla Plock 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jagiellonia are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 60% | Wisla Plock 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Białymstoku • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Oct 2026, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 40% | Draw 29% | Wisla Plock 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 62% | xG Jagiellonia 1.59 / Wisla Plock 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 0.894 / def 1.221 | Wisla Plock attack 0.870 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.588 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Wisla Plock xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock kicked off at 13:45 on Sunday 25 October 2026 at Stadion Miejski w Białymstoku.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock?
Jagiellonia 1 - 0 Wisla Plock.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Białymstoku.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock part of?
Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 40% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Jagiellonia and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Wisla Plock?
Record (6 meetings): Jagiellonia 2W | Draws 1 | Wisla Plock 3W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Wisla Plock in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Wisla Plock (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Jagiellonia's attack rating (0.89) and Wisla Plock's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wisla Plock's attack versus Jagiellonia's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
40%
2.52
29%
3.39
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
2.97
1.39
Wisla Plock xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
10%
10.11
6%
15.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.2 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 1.39 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jagiellonia come into this having played 44 games, going 19W 11D 14L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wisla Plock sit at 1.36 PPG from 44 outings (16W 12D 16L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jagiellonia on 1.55 PPG, Wisla Plock on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Jagiellonia's home form reads 11W 3D 8L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Wisla Plock have taken 1.05 points per game from 22 outings (5W 8D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Blended
Wisla Plock
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 19W 11D 14L in their last 44 games (1.55 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 16W 12D 16L in their last 44 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Wisla Plock away?
Jagiellonia's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 1.64 PPG; Wisla Plock away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jagiellonia and Wisla Plock runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 25 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2021, when Wisla Plock won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jagiellonia's record when hosting Wisla Plock specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Jagiellonia
1
Draws
3
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Wisla Plock?
From 7 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 3, Wisla Plock have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2026, when Jagiellonia 1-0 Wisla Plock.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Jagiellonia at 68%, Wisla Plock at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Jagiellonia) and 46% (Wisla Plock). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Wisla Plock?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Jagiellonia's games and 64% of Wisla Plock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Jagiellonia's matches and 46% of Wisla Plock's.
Do Jagiellonia and Wisla Plock tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Wisla Plock in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jagiellonia edge out Wisla Plock 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat Wisla Plock 1-0 at Stadion Miejski w Białymstoku, Regular Season - 12, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.59 xG and Wisla Plock 1.39 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Wisla Plock landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 0.89 / defence 1.22 against Wisla Plock attack 0.87 / defence 1.12, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 40% | Draw 29% | Wisla Plock 31%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 64%, Wisla Plock 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Wisla Plock's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jagiellonia 1.55 PPG, Wisla Plock 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jagiellonia win broke the near-deadlock. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.