Jagiellonia 4-0 Stal Mielec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jagiellonia at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jagiellonia vs Stal Mielec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jagiellonia host Stal Mielec at Stadion Miejski in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 3 November 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jagiellonia stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jagiellonia at Stadion Miejski this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Jagiellonia are significantly better at Stadion Miejski than their overall form suggests.
Stal Mielec — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stal Mielec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stal Mielec away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Jagiellonia are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Jagiellonia, 0 for Stal Mielec and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Jagiellonia in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Stal Mielec in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jagiellonia 70% versus Stal Mielec 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 57% | Stal Mielec 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.88 xG and Stal Mielec 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.389 / defence 0.806 | Stal Mielec attack 0.904 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.208. Jagiellonia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.389 — their λ of 1.88 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 47 Jagiellonia games / 47 Stal Mielec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 59% | Draw 26% | Stal Mielec 15%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 1.69 | Draw 3.85 | Stal Mielec 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Jagiellonia (59%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jagiellonia are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 70% | Stal Mielec 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Stal Mielec | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Friday 3 Nov 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 59% | Draw 26% | Stal Mielec 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 51% | xG Jagiellonia 1.88 / Stal Mielec 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.389 / def 0.806 | Stal Mielec attack 0.904 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Stal Mielec xG
51%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Stal Mielec kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Stal Mielec kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 3 November 2023 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Stal Mielec?
Jagiellonia 4 - 0 Stal Mielec.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Stal Mielec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Stal Mielec part of?
Jagiellonia vs Stal Mielec is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Stal Mielec?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 59% chance of winning, Stal Mielec a 15% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Stal Mielec?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Jagiellonia and Stal Mielec will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Stal Mielec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Stal Mielec?
Record (4 meetings): Jagiellonia 1W | Draws 3 | Stal Mielec 0W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Stal Mielec in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Stal Mielec (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jagiellonia's attack at 1.39x the league average against Stal Mielec's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stal Mielec's attack versus Jagiellonia's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
59%
1.69
26%
3.90
15%
6.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
2.75
0.88
Stal Mielec xG
1.69
59%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
6.51
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
15%
6.52
Win to Nil
24%
4.08
2%
42.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 10.5 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Stal Mielec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Stal Mielec expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 0.88 for Stal Mielec, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Stal Mielec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jagiellonia's recent record stands at 17W 16D 14L from 47 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stal Mielec, meanwhile, have gone 15W 13D 19L across 47 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Stal Mielec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jagiellonia on 1.43 PPG, Stal Mielec on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jagiellonia have managed 14W 4D 5L from 23 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — Jagiellonia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Stal Mielec's away record stands at 6W 4D 13L across 23 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Stal Mielec are on 1.15 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Blended
Stal Mielec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Stal Mielec in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 17W 16D 14L in their last 47 games (1.43 PPG), while Stal Mielec have gone 15W 13D 19L in their last 47 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Stal Mielec away?
Jagiellonia's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 2.00 PPG; Stal Mielec away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jagiellonia and Stal Mielec runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Sep 2022, when Jagiellonia won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jagiellonia's record when hosting Stal Mielec specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Jagiellonia
3
Draws
2
Stal Mielec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Stal Mielec?
From 8 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 3, Stal Mielec have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Stal Mielec last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2025, when Stal Mielec 2-1 Jagiellonia.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Stal Mielec?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 70%, Stal Mielec 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Jagiellonia) and 35% (Stal Mielec).
On the defensive side: Stal Mielec in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Stal Mielec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Stal Mielec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 70% of Jagiellonia's recent matches and 39% of Stal Mielec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jagiellonia vs Stal Mielec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Jagiellonia's recent games and 35% of Stal Mielec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jagiellonia and Stal Mielec tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Stal Mielec in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jagiellonia run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Stal Mielec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat Stal Mielec 4-0 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 14, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.88 xG and Stal Mielec 0.88 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Jagiellonia beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stal Mielec landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.39 / defence 0.81 against Stal Mielec attack 0.90 / defence 0.90, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 59% | Draw 26% | Stal Mielec 15%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 57%, Stal Mielec 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Stal Mielec's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jagiellonia 1.43 PPG, Stal Mielec 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jagiellonia win broke the near-deadlock. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.