Gornik Zabrze 1-0 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Gornik Zabrze take on Cracovia Krakow.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla plays host to Gornik Zabrze versus Cracovia Krakow in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Monday 6 November 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gornik Zabrze have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gornik Zabrze at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Cracovia Krakow's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Gornik Zabrze 1W, Cracovia Krakow 2W, 1D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jan 2023, ended 0–2 with Cracovia Krakow winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Gornik Zabrze goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Cracovia Krakow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gornik Zabrze 50% versus Cracovia Krakow 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gornik Zabrze 44% | Cracovia Krakow 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 0.99 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 0.758 / defence 0.922 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.871 / defence 0.873. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.187. Gornik Zabrze's attack strength of 0.758 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 Gornik Zabrze games / 46 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 34% | Draw 34% | Cracovia Krakow 32%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 2.94 | Draw 2.94 | Cracovia Krakow 3.12. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.95 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Gornik Zabrze 40% | Cracovia Krakow 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla • Kick-off: Monday 6 Nov 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 34% | Draw 34% | Cracovia Krakow 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Gornik Zabrze 0.99 / Cracovia Krakow 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 0.758 / def 0.922 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.871 / def 0.873 | league avg home 1.498 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Cracovia Krakow xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 6 November 2023 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What was the final score in Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow?
Gornik Zabrze 1 - 0 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 34% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 32% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (4 meetings): Gornik Zabrze 1W | Draws 1 | Cracovia Krakow 2W.
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Cracovia Krakow in?
Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Gornik Zabrze's attack at 0.76x the league average against Cracovia Krakow's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cracovia Krakow's attack (0.87x) against Gornik Zabrze's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 47/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.96
34%
2.90
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
1.95
0.95
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.96
34%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
39%
2.60
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
13%
7.69
12%
8.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 13.6 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 0.95 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 46 outings, Gornik Zabrze have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 17W 13D 16L record — L-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cracovia Krakow's form line: 15W 16D 15L from 46 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-D. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Gornik Zabrze against 1.33 for Cracovia Krakow. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Gornik Zabrze have posted 1.41 PPG from 22 outings (8W 7D 7L).
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 5W 8D 9L from 22 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.17 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 17W 13D 16L in their last 46 games (1.39 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 15W 16D 15L in their last 46 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Gornik Zabrze's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 1.41 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Gornik Zabrze or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gornik Zabrze have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cracovia Krakow won 5-0 on 3 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gornik Zabrze have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Cracovia Krakow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Gornik Zabrze
2
Draws
5
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Cracovia Krakow?
From 10 meetings on record, Gornik Zabrze have won 3, Cracovia Krakow have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Gornik Zabrze 3-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and Cracovia Krakow?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gornik Zabrze 50%, Cracovia Krakow 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Gornik Zabrze) and 36% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Gornik Zabrze keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Gornik Zabrze have failed to score in 27% of games; Cracovia Krakow in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gornik Zabrze play Cracovia Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Gornik Zabrze's recent matches and 50% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Gornik Zabrze's recent games and 36% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Gornik Zabrze have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gornik Zabrze edge out Cracovia Krakow 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gornik Zabrze beat Cracovia Krakow 1-0 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 14, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 0.99 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.95 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cracovia Krakow landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 0.76 / defence 0.92 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.87 / defence 0.87, drawn from 47/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 34% | Draw 34% | Cracovia Krakow 32%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 34%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 44%, Cracovia Krakow 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gornik Zabrze 1.39 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gornik Zabrze win broke the near-deadlock. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.