Jagiellonia 2-0 Puszcza Niepołomice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jagiellonia at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jagiellonia vs Puszcza Niepołomice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Miejski plays host to Jagiellonia versus Puszcza Niepołomice in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Friday 19 July 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jagiellonia have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Jagiellonia haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Stadion Miejski, Jagiellonia have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Puszcza Niepołomice's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Puszcza Niepołomice haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Puszcza Niepołomice's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Jagiellonia 1W, Puszcza Niepołomice 0W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2023, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Jagiellonia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Puszcza Niepołomice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jagiellonia 71% and Puszcza Niepołomice 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 79% | Puszcza Niepołomice 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.72 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.256 / defence 0.976 | Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.899 / defence 0.872. League average goals — home 1.569 / away 1.105. Jagiellonia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.256 — their λ of 1.72 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 34 Jagiellonia games / 34 Puszcza Niepołomice games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 53% | Draw 27% | Puszcza Niepołomice 20%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Puszcza Niepołomice 5.00. Jagiellonia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jagiellonia are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Jagiellonia 60% | Puszcza Niepołomice 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Puszcza Niepołomice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Friday 19 Jul 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 53% | Draw 27% | Puszcza Niepołomice 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Jagiellonia 1.72 / Puszcza Niepołomice 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.256 / def 0.976 | Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.899 / def 0.872 | league avg home 1.569 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Puszcza Niepołomice kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Puszcza Niepołomice kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 19 July 2024 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Jagiellonia 2 - 0 Puszcza Niepołomice.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Puszcza Niepołomice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Puszcza Niepołomice part of?
Jagiellonia vs Puszcza Niepołomice is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 53% chance of winning, Puszcza Niepołomice a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Jagiellonia and Puszcza Niepołomice will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Puszcza Niepołomice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Puszcza Niepołomice?
Record (2 meetings): Jagiellonia 1W | Draws 1 | Puszcza Niepołomice 0W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Puszcza Niepołomice in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Jagiellonia (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Jagiellonia's attack rating (1.26) and Puszcza Niepołomice's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Puszcza Niepołomice's attack (0.90x) against Jagiellonia's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
53%
1.87
27%
3.72
20%
5.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
2.69
0.97
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
1.87
53%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
5.08
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
18%
5.57
Win to Nil
20%
4.94
4%
28.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.3 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Puszcza Niepołomice expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 0.97 for Puszcza Niepołomice, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 34 outings, Jagiellonia have picked up 1.85 PPG on a 18W 9D 7L record — D-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. Jagiellonia haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Puszcza Niepołomice's form line: 9W 13D 12L from 34 games, 1.18 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-W. Puszcza Niepołomice haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Jagiellonia are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Puszcza Niepołomice.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Jagiellonia have posted 2.29 PPG from 17 outings (12W 3D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.85 PPG overall — Jagiellonia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 2W 5D 10L from 17 away games — 0.65 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.18 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Puszcza Niepołomice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jagiellonia are averaging 2.26 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Puszcza Niepołomice are on 1.15 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Puszcza Niepołomice in 62%.
Last 34 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Pre-Season
Puszcza Niepołomice
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Puszcza Niepołomice in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 18W 9D 7L in their last 34 games (1.85 PPG), while Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 9W 13D 12L in their last 34 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Puszcza Niepołomice away?
Jagiellonia's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 2.29 PPG; Puszcza Niepołomice away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 December 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jagiellonia won 4-1 on 29 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jagiellonia have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Puszcza Niepołomice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Jagiellonia
2
Draws
0
Puszcza Niepołomice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Puszcza Niepołomice?
From 4 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 2, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Puszcza Niepołomice last play each other?
They last met on 8 December 2024, when Puszcza Niepołomice 1-1 Jagiellonia.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Puszcza Niepołomice?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Puszcza Niepołomice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 59%, Puszcza Niepołomice 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 82% (Jagiellonia) and 35% (Puszcza Niepołomice). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jagiellonia keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Puszcza Niepołomice in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Puszcza Niepołomice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Puszcza Niepołomice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Jagiellonia's games and 53% of Puszcza Niepołomice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jagiellonia vs Puszcza Niepołomice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of Jagiellonia's matches and 35% of Puszcza Niepołomice's.
Do Jagiellonia and Puszcza Niepołomice tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, Puszcza Niepołomice in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jagiellonia cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Puszcza Niepołomice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat Puszcza Niepołomice 2-0 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 1, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.72 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 0.97 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Puszcza Niepołomice landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.26 / defence 0.98 against Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.90 / defence 0.87, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 53% | Draw 27% | Puszcza Niepołomice 20%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 79%, Puszcza Niepołomice 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.18. Form held, and they took the win. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Puszcza Niepołomice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.