Gornik Zabrze 1-2 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gornik Zabrze at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Legia Warszawa travel to Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla to take on Gornik Zabrze. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 April 2025, 13:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Gornik Zabrze have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gornik Zabrze at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Legia Warszawa — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Legia Warszawa have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gornik Zabrze 1.60 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Legia Warszawa have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 7 encounters against Gornik Zabrze's 1 victories.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Legia Warszawa have won 4 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Gornik Zabrze trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Legia Warszawa trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gornik Zabrze 52% versus Legia Warszawa 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gornik Zabrze 48% | Legia Warszawa 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 2.04 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.108 / defence 0.909 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.180 / defence 1.273. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.172. Legia Warszawa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.273 — this is suppressing Gornik Zabrze's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Gornik Zabrze games / 60 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 55% | Draw 21% | Legia Warszawa 23%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 1.82 | Draw 4.76 | Legia Warszawa 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Gornik Zabrze (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral: Gornik Zabrze 40% | Legia Warszawa 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Apr 2025, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 55% | Draw 21% | Legia Warszawa 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 62% | xG Gornik Zabrze 2.04 / Legia Warszawa 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.108 / def 0.909 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.180 / def 1.273 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Legia Warszawa xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 13:45 on Sunday 6 April 2025 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What was the final score in Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa?
Gornik Zabrze 1 - 2 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 55% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 23% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa?
Record (7 meetings): Gornik Zabrze 1W | Draws 2 | Legia Warszawa 4W.
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa in?
Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Gornik Zabrze's attack rating (1.11) and Legia Warszawa's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 2.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Legia Warszawa's attack versus Gornik Zabrze's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
55%
1.80
21%
4.69
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
3.29
1.26
Legia Warszawa xG
1.80
55%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
13%
7.68
Win to Nil
16%
6.34
3%
33.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 1.26 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Gornik Zabrze have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 27W 12D 21L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Legia Warszawa's form line: 27W 19D 14L from 60 games, 1.67 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-D. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gornik Zabrze on 1.55 PPG, Legia Warszawa on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Gornik Zabrze have posted 1.83 PPG from 30 outings (16W 7D 7L).
On the road, Legia Warszawa have gone 11W 10D 9L from 30 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gornik Zabrze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.65 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Legia Warszawa in 60%.
Last 60 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 27W 12D 21L in their last 60 games (1.55 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 27W 19D 14L in their last 60 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Gornik Zabrze's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 1.83 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Gornik Zabrze's record when hosting Legia Warszawa specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Gornik Zabrze
3
Draws
5
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Gornik Zabrze have won 2, Legia Warszawa have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Legia Warszawa 1-1 Gornik Zabrze.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gornik Zabrze 43%, Legia Warszawa 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Gornik Zabrze) and 47% (Legia Warszawa).
On the defensive side: Gornik Zabrze keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Gornik Zabrze have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gornik Zabrze play Legia Warszawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Gornik Zabrze's recent matches and 57% of Legia Warszawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Gornik Zabrze's recent games and 47% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Gornik Zabrze have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Legia Warszawa defy the odds to beat Gornik Zabrze 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Gornik Zabrze 1-2 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 27, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 2.04 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.26 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Gornik Zabrze fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 1.11 / defence 0.91 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.18 / defence 1.27, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 55% | Draw 21% | Legia Warszawa 23%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Legia Warszawa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 48%, Legia Warszawa 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gornik Zabrze 1.55 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.