Cracovia Krakow 0-1 Puszcza Niepołomice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cracovia Krakow vs Puszcza Niepołomice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Puszcza Niepołomice make the trip to Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego to face Cracovia Krakow in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Sunday 21 April 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Cracovia Krakow's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cracovia Krakow have posted 2W 5D 3L at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego — 1.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Puszcza Niepołomice have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Puszcza Niepołomice away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Cracovia Krakow against 0.90 for Puszcza Niepołomice. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Cracovia Krakow have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Puszcza Niepołomice in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Cracovia Krakow 0W, Puszcza Niepołomice 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Cracovia Krakow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Puszcza Niepołomice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cracovia Krakow 57% and Puszcza Niepołomice 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 39% | Puszcza Niepołomice 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.77 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.164 / defence 1.234 | Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.757 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 1.100. Data: 62 Cracovia Krakow games / 28 Puszcza Niepołomice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 53% | Draw 27% | Puszcza Niepołomice 20%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Puszcza Niepołomice 5.00. Cracovia Krakow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cracovia Krakow as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 60% | Puszcza Niepołomice 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Puszcza Niepołomice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Apr 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 53% | Draw 27% | Puszcza Niepołomice 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.77 / Puszcza Niepołomice 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.164 / def 1.234 | Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.757 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.434 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Puszcza Niepołomice kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Puszcza Niepołomice kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Cracovia Krakow 0 - 1 Puszcza Niepołomice.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Puszcza Niepołomice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Puszcza Niepołomice part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Puszcza Niepołomice is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 53% chance of winning, Puszcza Niepołomice a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Puszcza Niepołomice will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Puszcza Niepołomice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Puszcza Niepołomice?
Record (1 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 0W | Draws 1 | Puszcza Niepołomice 0W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Puszcza Niepołomice in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-D-W. Puszcza Niepołomice (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cracovia Krakow's attack rating (1.16) and Puszcza Niepołomice's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Puszcza Niepołomice's attack (0.76x) against Cracovia Krakow's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 62/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
53%
1.89
27%
3.66
20%
5.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.80
1.03
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
5.05
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
17%
5.89
Win to Nil
19%
5.28
3%
29.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.1 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Puszcza Niepołomice expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.03 for Puszcza Niepołomice, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cracovia Krakow come into this having played 28 games, going 6W 14D 8L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-W.
On the other side, Puszcza Niepołomice sit at 1.04 PPG from 28 outings (6W 11D 11L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Cracovia Krakow against 1.04 for Puszcza Niepołomice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Cracovia Krakow's home form reads 3W 7D 4L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Puszcza Niepołomice have taken 0.50 points per game from 14 outings (1W 4D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Puszcza Niepołomice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cracovia Krakow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Puszcza Niepołomice are on 1.21 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Puszcza Niepołomice in 68%.
Last 28 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Current Season
Puszcza Niepołomice
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Puszcza Niepołomice in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 6W 14D 8L in their last 28 games (1.14 PPG), while Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 6W 11D 11L in their last 28 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Puszcza Niepołomice away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.14 PPG; Puszcza Niepołomice away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Cracovia Krakow have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cracovia Krakow have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Puszcza Niepołomice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Cracovia Krakow
1
Draws
1
Puszcza Niepołomice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Puszcza Niepołomice?
From 4 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 2, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Puszcza Niepołomice last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Cracovia Krakow 3-1 Puszcza Niepołomice.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Puszcza Niepołomice?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Puszcza Niepołomice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 64%, Puszcza Niepołomice 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Cracovia Krakow) and 43% (Puszcza Niepołomice).
On the defensive side: Puszcza Niepołomice in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Puszcza Niepołomice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Puszcza Niepołomice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Cracovia Krakow's games and 57% of Puszcza Niepołomice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Puszcza Niepołomice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 43% of Puszcza Niepołomice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Puszcza Niepołomice tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Puszcza Niepołomice in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Puszcza Niepołomice defy the odds to beat Cracovia Krakow 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Puszcza Niepołomice beat Cracovia Krakow 0-1 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 29, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.77 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 1.03 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cracovia Krakow fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 1.16 / defence 1.23 against Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.76 / defence 1.06, drawn from 62/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 53% | Draw 27% | Puszcza Niepołomice 20%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Puszcza Niepołomice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 39%, Puszcza Niepołomice 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.14 PPG, Puszcza Niepołomice 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Puszcza Niepołomice win broke the near-deadlock. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward. Puszcza Niepołomice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.