Viking 3-3 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Viking at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Viking vs ODD Ballklubb encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Viking host ODD Ballklubb at SR-Bank Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 October 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Viking have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at SR-Bank Arena, Viking have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Viking are significantly better at SR-Bank Arena than their overall form suggests.
ODD Ballklubb — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ODD Ballklubb's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
On current form, Viking have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Viking have won 2, ODD Ballklubb 4, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2024, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Viking trading profile (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
ODD Ballklubb trading profile (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Viking 63% versus ODD Ballklubb 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Viking 59% | ODD Ballklubb 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 1.73 xG and ODD Ballklubb 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.201 / defence 0.905 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.677 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.231. Data: 54 Viking games / 54 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 61% | Draw 23% | ODD Ballklubb 16%. Fair-value odds: Viking 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | ODD Ballklubb 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Viking (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
ODD Ballklubb lead the H2H ledger, but Viking carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Viking as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Viking 60% | ODD Ballklubb 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Oct 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 61% | Draw 23% | ODD Ballklubb 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 44% | xG Viking 1.73 / ODD Ballklubb 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.201 / def 0.905 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.677 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.551 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Viking (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Viking xG
Expected Goals
0.75
ODD Ballklubb xG
44%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Viking vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 20 October 2024 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs ODD Ballklubb?
Viking 3 - 3 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Viking vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Viking vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 61% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Viking and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (9 meetings): Viking 2W | Draws 3 | ODD Ballklubb 4W.
What form are Viking and ODD Ballklubb in?
Viking (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Viking's attack at 1.20x the league average against ODD Ballklubb's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, ODD Ballklubb's attack versus Viking's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (12.5%), 1-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
61%
1.65
23%
4.29
16%
6.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Viking xG
Total xG
2.49
0.75
ODD Ballklubb xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
6.27
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
18%
5.65
Win to Nil
29%
3.50
3%
35.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 10.9 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.4 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Viking and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Viking and 0.75 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs ODD Ballklubb?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Viking come into this having played 54 games, going 30W 11D 13L for 1.87 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-W. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, ODD Ballklubb sit at 1.11 PPG from 54 outings (15W 15D 24L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Viking carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.76 PPG clear of ODD Ballklubb — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Viking's home form reads 17W 5D 4L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.15 PPG return.
Away from home, ODD Ballklubb have taken 0.85 points per game from 26 outings (5W 7D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Viking are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.19 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Blended
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 30W 11D 13L in their last 54 games (1.87 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 15W 15D 24L in their last 54 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Viking's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 2.15 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 October 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Nov 2020, when ODD Ballklubb won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Viking's record when hosting ODD Ballklubb specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Viking
4
Draws
4
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and ODD Ballklubb?
From 10 meetings on record, Viking have won 2, ODD Ballklubb have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Viking and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 20 October 2024, when Viking 3-3 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between Viking and ODD Ballklubb?
ODD Ballklubb have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
ODD Ballklubb see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Viking 73%, ODD Ballklubb 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Viking) and 54% (ODD Ballklubb). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ODD Ballklubb in 31%; ODD Ballklubb in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play ODD Ballklubb?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Viking's games and 50% of ODD Ballklubb's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Viking's matches and 54% of ODD Ballklubb's.
Do Viking and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Viking and ODD Ballklubb share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking and ODD Ballklubb finished level at 3-3 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 1.73 xG and ODD Ballklubb 0.75 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Viking beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. ODD Ballklubb outscored their 0.75 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.20 / defence 0.91 against ODD Ballklubb attack 0.68 / defence 0.93, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 61% | Draw 23% | ODD Ballklubb 16%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 59%, ODD Ballklubb 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Viking (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.