Viking 3-2 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Viking vs Bodo/Glimt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bodo/Glimt make the trip to SR-Bank Arena to face Viking in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Sunday 6 August 2023 at 18:15 UTC.
Form
Viking (all games): 8W 0D 2L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Viking's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at SR-Bank Arena this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bodo/Glimt have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: D W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt's away record: 8W 0D 2L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.40 vs 2.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Viking have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Bodo/Glimt in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Viking, 3 for Bodo/Glimt and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.2 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2023, ended 1–5 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Viking — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 59%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 72% and Bodo/Glimt 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Viking 63% | Bodo/Glimt 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 1.85 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.348 / defence 1.108 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.515 / defence 0.788. League average goals — home 1.743 / away 1.332. Viking carry an above-average attack strength of 1.348 — their λ of 1.85 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Bodo/Glimt's defence strength of 0.788 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack strength of 1.515 — the away xG of 2.24 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 Viking games / 47 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 33% | Draw 20% | Bodo/Glimt 47%. Fair-value odds: Viking 3.03 | Draw 5.00 | Bodo/Glimt 2.13. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 75% | Total xG 4.09. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.09 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 2.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 4.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 77% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 4.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 75% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Viking 80% | Bodo/Glimt 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Aug 2023, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 33% | Draw 20% | Bodo/Glimt 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 75% | xG Viking 1.85 / Bodo/Glimt 2.24 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.348 / def 1.108 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.515 / def 0.788 | league avg home 1.743 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Viking xG
Expected Goals
2.24
Bodo/Glimt xG
75%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Viking vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 6 August 2023 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Bodo/Glimt?
Viking 3 - 2 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Viking vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Viking vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 33% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 47% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both Viking and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Bodo/Glimt?
Record (4 meetings): Viking 1W | Draws 0 | Bodo/Glimt 3W.
What form are Viking and Bodo/Glimt in?
Viking (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Viking's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against Bodo/Glimt's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.85. Flip it around — Bodo/Glimt's attack (1.51x) against Viking's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 2.24.
These ratings are built from 46/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 7.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.8%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
33%
3.07
20%
4.97
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
1 – 1
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Viking xG
Total xG
4.09
2.24
Bodo/Glimt xG
3.07
33%
Home win
4.97
20%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.33
25%
BTTS No
4.04
Clean Sheet
11%
9.36
16%
6.36
Win to Nil
3%
28.71
7%
13.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 3.1 | 7.0 | 7.8 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 6.4 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.9%.
How many goals are Viking and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Viking and 2.24 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 4.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 46 outings, Viking have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 20W 10D 16L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt's form line: 31W 7D 8L from 46 games, 2.17 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bodo/Glimt are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Viking.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Viking have posted 1.70 PPG from 23 outings (11W 6D 6L).
On the road, Bodo/Glimt have gone 17W 0D 6L from 23 away games — 2.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Viking are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.76 scored and 1.24 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games; Bodo/Glimt in 63%.
Last 46 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 20W 10D 16L in their last 46 games (1.52 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 31W 7D 8L in their last 46 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 1.70 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.22 PPG.
Have Viking or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Viking have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won 5-0 on 11 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Viking have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Bodo/Glimt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Viking
1
Draws
5
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Viking have won 4, Bodo/Glimt have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Viking 5-0 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Viking 65%, Bodo/Glimt 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Viking and 70% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Viking's games and 61% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Viking's matches and 70% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Viking and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Viking defy the odds to beat Bodo/Glimt 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Bodo/Glimt 3-2 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 1.85 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.24 xG, a combined 4.09. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Viking beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.35 / defence 1.11 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.51 / defence 0.79, drawn from 46/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 33% | Draw 20% | Bodo/Glimt 47%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Viking win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 63%, Bodo/Glimt 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.52. Form was overturned, with Viking winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Viking (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.96 average — above their attacking norm. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.