Bodo/Glimt 0-2 Tromso – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bodo/Glimt at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Tromso make the trip to Aspmyra Stadion to face Bodo/Glimt in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Sunday 30 July 2023 at 18:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bodo/Glimt have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt at Aspmyra Stadion this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Tromso (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Tromso, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tromso's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.50 PPG for Bodo/Glimt against 2.20 for Tromso. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Tromso in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bodo/Glimt lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2023, ended 3–2 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Bodo/Glimt half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
Tromso half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 64% and Tromso 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 73% | Tromso 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 1.86 xG and Tromso 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.398 / defence 0.927 | Tromso attack 1.040 / defence 0.775. League average goals — home 1.714 / away 1.298. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.398 — their λ of 1.86 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Tromso's defence strength of 0.775 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 46 Bodo/Glimt games / 45 Tromso games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 52% | Draw 23% | Tromso 26%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Tromso 3.85. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bodo/Glimt 60% | Tromso 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Jul 2023, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 52% | Draw 23% | Tromso 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 60% | xG Bodo/Glimt 1.86 / Tromso 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.398 / def 0.927 | Tromso attack 1.040 / def 0.775 | league avg home 1.714 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Tromso xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 30 July 2023 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso?
Bodo/Glimt 0 - 2 Tromso.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 52% chance of winning, Tromso a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Tromso will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Tromso?
Record (4 meetings): Bodo/Glimt 2W | Draws 1 | Tromso 1W.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Tromso in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Tromso (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bodo/Glimt's attack at 1.40x the league average against Tromso's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 1.86 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Tromso's attack (1.04x) against Bodo/Glimt's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 46/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
52%
1.94
23%
4.41
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
3.11
1.25
Tromso xG
1.94
52%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
16%
6.40
Win to Nil
15%
6.78
4%
24.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.4 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Tromso expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.25 for Tromso, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bodo/Glimt come into this having played 45 games, going 31W 7D 7L for 2.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-W. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Tromso sit at 1.62 PPG from 45 outings (19W 16D 10L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Tromso is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Tromso — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Bodo/Glimt's home form reads 14W 7D 1L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Tromso have taken 1.36 points per game from 22 outings (7W 9D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.82 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Tromso are on 1.49 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Tromso in 71%.
Last 45 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Tromso
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Tromso in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 31W 7D 7L in their last 45 games (2.22 PPG), while Tromso have gone 19W 16D 10L in their last 45 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Tromso away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.23 PPG; Tromso away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Tromso been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Tromso in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 5-0 on 16 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bodo/Glimt have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Tromso — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bodo/Glimt
3
Draws
3
Tromso
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Tromso?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 4, Tromso have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Tromso last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Bodo/Glimt 5-0 Tromso.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Tromso?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 68% for Bodo/Glimt, 73% for Tromso — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Bodo/Glimt and 54% for Tromso. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 68% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Tromso away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Tromso?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Bodo/Glimt's games and 73% of Tromso's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Tromso usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 54% of Tromso's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Tromso tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Tromso in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tromso cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Bodo/Glimt.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tromso beat Bodo/Glimt 0-2 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 1.86 xG and Tromso 1.25 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.40 / defence 0.93 against Tromso attack 1.04 / defence 0.78, drawn from 46/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 52% | Draw 23% | Tromso 26%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual Tromso win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 73%, Tromso 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Tromso's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.62. Form was overturned, with Tromso winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.09 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Tromso (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.