Start 0-1 Fredrikstad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fredrikstad at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Start vs Fredrikstad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Start host Fredrikstad at Sparebanken Sør Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 August 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Start stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Start, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Start have posted 1W 3D 3L at Sparebanken Sør Arena — 0.86 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Fredrikstad have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fredrikstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fredrikstad's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Start 0.70 PPG, Fredrikstad 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Start have won 0, Fredrikstad 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2026, ended 1–2 with Fredrikstad winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Start in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Fredrikstad in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Start 69% and Fredrikstad 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Start 62% | Fredrikstad 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Start 1.20 xG and Fredrikstad 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Start attack 0.606 / defence 1.337 | Fredrikstad attack 0.745 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.372. Start's attack strength of 0.606 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 16 Start games / 45 Fredrikstad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Start 33% | Draw 26% | Fredrikstad 41%. Fair-value odds: Start 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Fredrikstad 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fredrikstad at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fredrikstad offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Start 57% | Fredrikstad 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Start vs Fredrikstad | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Sparebanken Sør Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Start 33% | Draw 26% | Fredrikstad 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Start 1.20 / Fredrikstad 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Start attack 0.606 / def 1.337 | Fredrikstad attack 0.745 / def 1.159 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.372 • Poisson stance: Fredrikstad (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Start xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Fredrikstad xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Start vs Fredrikstad kick off?
Start vs Fredrikstad kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 8 August 2026 at Sparebanken Sør Arena.
What was the final score in Start vs Fredrikstad?
Start 0 - 1 Fredrikstad.
Where is Start vs Fredrikstad being played?
The match is being played at Sparebanken Sør Arena.
What competition is Start vs Fredrikstad part of?
Start vs Fredrikstad is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Start vs Fredrikstad?
Our statistical model gives Start a 33% chance of winning, Fredrikstad a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fredrikstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Start vs Fredrikstad?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Start and Fredrikstad will score (BTTS).
Will Start vs Fredrikstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Start and Fredrikstad?
Record (1 meetings): Start 0W | Draws 0 | Fredrikstad 1W.
What form are Start and Fredrikstad in?
Start (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Fredrikstad (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Start's attack rating (0.61) and Fredrikstad's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fredrikstad's attack versus Start's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fredrikstad Win
33%
3.04
26%
3.78
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Start xG
Total xG
2.57
1.36
Fredrikstad xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
26%
3.92
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
8%
11.91
12%
8.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.5 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.6 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Start vs Fredrikstad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Start and Fredrikstad expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Start and 1.36 for Fredrikstad, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Start vs Fredrikstad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Start come into this having played 16 games, going 2W 4D 10L for 0.62 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Start is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fredrikstad sit at 1.06 PPG from 16 outings (5W 2D 9L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Fredrikstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fredrikstad carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Start — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Start's home form reads 1W 3D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 0.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Fredrikstad have taken 0.57 points per game from 7 outings (1W 1D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fredrikstad's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Start are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.31 conceded per game recently; Fredrikstad are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Start have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Start
Blended
Fredrikstad
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Start and Fredrikstad in coming into this match?
Start have gone 2W 4D 10L in their last 16 games (0.62 PPG), while Fredrikstad have gone 5W 2D 9L in their last 16 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Start at home or Fredrikstad away?
Start's home record (0.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Start at home: 0.86 PPG; Fredrikstad away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Start
0
Draws
2
Fredrikstad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Start and Fredrikstad?
From 2 meetings on record, Start have won 0, Fredrikstad have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Start and Fredrikstad last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Start 0-1 Fredrikstad.
Who has won more matches between Start and Fredrikstad?
Fredrikstad have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Start are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Fredrikstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Start 57%, Fredrikstad 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Start) and 57% (Fredrikstad).
On the defensive side: Start have failed to score in 29% of games; Fredrikstad in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Start home games / Fredrikstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Start play Fredrikstad?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Start's games and 57% of Fredrikstad's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Start vs Fredrikstad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Start's recent games and 57% of Fredrikstad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Start and Fredrikstad tend to score early?
Start have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Fredrikstad in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fredrikstad edge out Start 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fredrikstad beat Start 0-1 at Sparebanken Sør Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Start 1.20 xG and Fredrikstad 1.36 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Start fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Start attack 0.61 / defence 1.34 against Fredrikstad attack 0.74 / defence 1.16, drawn from 16/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Start 33% | Draw 26% | Fredrikstad 41%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Start 62%, Fredrikstad 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Start's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fredrikstad's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Fredrikstad arrived the stronger side — 1.06 PPG against 0.62. That form edge translated into the three points. Start (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.