Stabaek 1-3 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rosenborg at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stabaek vs Rosenborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Nadderud Stadion plays host to Stabaek versus Rosenborg in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Sunday 5 December 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Stabaek's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Stabaek's home record at Nadderud Stadion: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Rosenborg (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Rosenborg have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Stabaek 0W, Rosenborg 2W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 May 2021, ended 2–4 with Rosenborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Stabaek — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Rosenborg — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stabaek 53% versus Rosenborg 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stabaek 62% | Rosenborg 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.33 xG and Rosenborg 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.794 / defence 1.169 | Rosenborg attack 1.010 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.742 / away 1.230. Stabaek's attack strength of 0.794 is below the league average — the 1.33 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 58 Stabaek games / 58 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stabaek 31% | Draw 31% | Rosenborg 37%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Rosenborg 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rosenborg at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rosenborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Stabaek 50% | Rosenborg 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 31% | Draw 31% | Rosenborg 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 59% | xG Stabaek 1.33 / Rosenborg 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.794 / def 1.169 | Rosenborg attack 1.010 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.742 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Rosenborg xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stabaek vs Rosenborg kick off?
Stabaek vs Rosenborg kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Nadderud Stadion.
What was the final score in Stabaek vs Rosenborg?
Stabaek 1 - 3 Rosenborg.
Where is Stabaek vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Rosenborg part of?
Stabaek vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 31% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Stabaek and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Stabaek vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Rosenborg?
Record (3 meetings): Stabaek 0W | Draws 1 | Rosenborg 2W.
What form are Stabaek and Rosenborg in?
Stabaek (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Rosenborg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Stabaek's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Rosenborg's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. Flip it around — Rosenborg's attack (1.01x) against Stabaek's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
31%
3.18
31%
3.18
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Stabaek xG
Total xG
2.78
1.45
Rosenborg xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
7%
13.63
10%
10.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.0 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.9 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.45 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 58 outings, Stabaek have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 15W 19D 24L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Rosenborg's form line: 27W 15D 16L from 58 games, 1.66 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-D.
Put side by side, Rosenborg are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stabaek.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Stabaek have posted 1.24 PPG from 29 outings (9W 9D 11L).
On the road, Rosenborg have gone 9W 9D 11L from 29 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.66 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stabaek are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.78 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg in 60%.
Last 58 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Current Season
Rosenborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stabaek and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 15W 19D 24L in their last 58 games (1.10 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 27W 15D 16L in their last 58 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or Rosenborg away?
Stabaek's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 1.24 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won 0-3 on 5 Jul 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stabaek have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Stabaek
3
Draws
3
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Rosenborg?
From 6 meetings on record, Stabaek have won 0, Rosenborg have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 22 October 2023, when Rosenborg 1-1 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stabaek 41%, Rosenborg 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Stabaek) and 62% (Rosenborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stabaek have failed to score in 38% of games; Rosenborg in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stabaek play Rosenborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Stabaek's recent matches and 59% of Rosenborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stabaek vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Stabaek's matches and 62% of Rosenborg's.
Do Stabaek and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Stabaek have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rosenborg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Stabaek.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Stabaek 1-3 at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.33 xG and Rosenborg 1.45 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Rosenborg outscored their 1.45 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.79 / defence 1.17 against Rosenborg attack 1.01 / defence 0.96, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 31% | Draw 31% | Rosenborg 37%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 62%, Rosenborg 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Rosenborg's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.10. That form edge translated into the three points. Stabaek (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rosenborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.