Rosenborg vs Tromso – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rosenborg vs Tromso fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lerkendal Stadion plays host to Rosenborg versus Tromso in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Saturday 20 November 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rosenborg have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Lerkendal Stadion, Rosenborg have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Tromso (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Tromso, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Tromso have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Tromso in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Rosenborg, 0 for Tromso and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 3–2 with Rosenborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Rosenborg half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
Tromso half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rosenborg 69% and Tromso 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 73% | Tromso 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 2.25 xG and Tromso 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.211 / defence 1.140 | Tromso attack 0.904 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.792 / away 1.228. Data: 56 Rosenborg games / 26 Tromso games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 58% | Draw 23% | Tromso 19%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Tromso 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.25 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rosenborg at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.51 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 60% | Tromso 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Tromso | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 58% | Draw 23% | Tromso 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 66% | xG Rosenborg 2.25 / Tromso 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.211 / def 1.140 | Tromso attack 0.904 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.792 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Tromso xG
66%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Tromso kick off?
Rosenborg vs Tromso kicked off at 00:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Lerkendal Stadion.
Where is Rosenborg vs Tromso being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Tromso part of?
Rosenborg vs Tromso is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Tromso?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 58% chance of winning, Tromso a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Tromso?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Rosenborg and Tromso will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Tromso have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Tromso?
Record (1 meetings): Rosenborg 1W | Draws 0 | Tromso 0W.
What form are Rosenborg and Tromso in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. Tromso (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Rosenborg's attack at 1.21x the league average against Tromso's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 2.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Tromso's attack (0.90x) against Rosenborg's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 56/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
58%
1.73
23%
4.30
19%
5.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
3.51
1.26
Tromso xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
5.29
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
11%
9.49
Win to Nil
16%
6.12
2%
50.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Tromso?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Tromso expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.26 for Tromso, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Tromso?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rosenborg come into this having played 26 games, going 12W 7D 7L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-D. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Tromso sit at 1.15 PPG from 26 outings (7W 9D 10L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Tromso is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Tromso — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Rosenborg's home form reads 8W 2D 3L across 13 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Tromso have taken 1.23 points per game from 13 outings (4W 4D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rosenborg are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Tromso are on 1.19 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
Tromso
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Tromso in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 12W 7D 7L in their last 26 games (1.65 PPG), while Tromso have gone 7W 9D 10L in their last 26 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Tromso away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.00 PPG; Tromso away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Tromso go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won 3-0 on 23 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Tromso — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Rosenborg
0
Draws
5
Tromso
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Tromso?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 5, Tromso have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Tromso last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Tromso 2-0 Rosenborg.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 62%, Tromso 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Rosenborg and 62% for Tromso. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 77% and 15% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Tromso in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Tromso away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Tromso?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Rosenborg's games and 54% of Tromso's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Tromso usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Rosenborg's matches and 62% of Tromso's.
Do Rosenborg and Tromso tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Tromso in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Rosenborg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg and Tromso finished level at 0-0 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 2.25 xG and Tromso 1.26 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Rosenborg fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Tromso landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.21 / defence 1.14 against Tromso attack 0.90 / defence 1.04, drawn from 56/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 58% | Draw 23% | Tromso 19%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 73%, Tromso 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Tromso's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.54 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Tromso (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.