Stabaek 1-0 Aalesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stabaek at 64%, yet in-form Aalesund provide a compelling counter-argument — this Stabaek vs Aalesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stabaek and Aalesund meet at Nadderud Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 May 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Stabaek have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Stabaek haven't played a Eliteserien game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Nadderud Stadion, Stabaek have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Aalesund (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Aalesund's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Aalesund are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Stabaek, 0 for Aalesund and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2020, ended 4–0 with Stabaek winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Stabaek half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Aalesund half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stabaek 60% versus Aalesund 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Stabaek 73% | Aalesund 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.88 xG and Aalesund 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.938 / defence 0.915 | Aalesund attack 0.645 / defence 1.345. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.170. Aalesund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.345 — this is suppressing Stabaek's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Stabaek games / 36 Aalesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stabaek 64% | Draw 25% | Aalesund 11%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 1.56 | Draw 4.00 | Aalesund 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Stabaek (64%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stabaek are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Aalesund (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Stabaek 60% | Aalesund 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Aalesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 64% | Draw 25% | Aalesund 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 44% | xG Stabaek 1.88 / Aalesund 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.938 / def 0.915 | Aalesund attack 0.645 / def 1.345 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Stabaek (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Aalesund xG
44%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stabaek vs Aalesund kick off?
Stabaek vs Aalesund kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 May 2023 at Nadderud Stadion.
What was the final score in Stabaek vs Aalesund?
Stabaek 1 - 0 Aalesund.
Where is Stabaek vs Aalesund being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Aalesund part of?
Stabaek vs Aalesund is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Aalesund?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 64% chance of winning, Aalesund a 11% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Stabaek the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Aalesund?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Stabaek and Aalesund will score (BTTS).
Will Stabaek vs Aalesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Aalesund?
Record (2 meetings): Stabaek 2W | Draws 0 | Aalesund 0W.
What form are Stabaek and Aalesund in?
Stabaek (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Aalesund (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Stabaek's attack rating (0.94) and Aalesund's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.88 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Aalesund's attack (0.65x) against Stabaek's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from 5/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 1-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stabaek Win
64%
1.57
25%
4.00
11%
8.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.5%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Stabaek xG
Total xG
2.57
0.69
Aalesund xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
8.96
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
15%
6.53
Win to Nil
32%
3.12
2%
58.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 9.9 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.5 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Aalesund?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Aalesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Stabaek and 0.69 for Aalesund, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Aalesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stabaek come into this having played 30 games, going 6W 7D 17L for 0.83 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L. Stabaek haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Aalesund sit at 1.30 PPG from 30 outings (10W 9D 11L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-D across their last five.
Aalesund carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Stabaek — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Stabaek's home form reads 4W 3D 8L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Aalesund have taken 1.07 points per game from 15 outings (4W 4D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
Stabaek are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; Aalesund are on 1.07 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stabaek have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Pre-Season
Aalesund
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stabaek and Aalesund in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 6W 7D 17L in their last 30 games (0.83 PPG), while Aalesund have gone 10W 9D 11L in their last 30 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or Aalesund away?
Aalesund's away record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 1.00 PPG; Aalesund away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 September 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Stabaek won 4-0 on 18 Oct 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stabaek have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Aalesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Stabaek
1
Draws
0
Aalesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Aalesund?
From 4 meetings on record, Stabaek have won 3, Aalesund have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Aalesund last play each other?
They last met on 23 September 2023, when Aalesund 1-1 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Aalesund?
Stabaek have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stabaek 47%, Aalesund 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Stabaek and 67% for Aalesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stabaek have failed to score in 40% of games; Aalesund in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Aalesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stabaek play Aalesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Stabaek's recent matches and 47% of Aalesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stabaek vs Aalesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Stabaek's matches and 67% of Aalesund's.
Do Stabaek and Aalesund tend to score early?
Stabaek have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Aalesund in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stabaek edge out Aalesund 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stabaek beat Aalesund 1-0 at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.88 xG and Aalesund 0.69 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Stabaek fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.94 / defence 0.92 against Aalesund attack 0.65 / defence 1.34, drawn from 5/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 64% | Draw 25% | Aalesund 11%, with Stabaek to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 73%, Aalesund 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Aalesund's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Aalesund arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.83. Form was overturned, with Stabaek winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Stabaek (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Aalesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.