Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-1 Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Brann encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Brann meet at Sarpsborg Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 May 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF's overall Eliteserien record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W D D D W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 5W 2D 3L at Sarpsborg Stadion — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Sarpsborg Stadion this season.
Brann have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: D L D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Brann haven't played a Eliteserien game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Brann's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in Sarpsborg 08 FF's favour (2.20 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Sarpsborg 08 FF register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Brann in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 1 for Brann and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2021, ended 1–2 with Brann winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Sarpsborg 08 FF — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
Brann — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sarpsborg 08 FF 71% and Brann 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 68% | Brann 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.24 xG and Brann 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.822 / defence 0.973 | Brann attack 0.995 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.170. Data: 35 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 6 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 36% | Draw 33% | Brann 31%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | Brann 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 3.8 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% | Brann 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 36% | Draw 33% | Brann 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 51% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.24 / Brann 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.822 / def 0.973 | Brann attack 0.995 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Brann xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Brann kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Brann kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 May 2023 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Brann?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 2 - 1 Brann.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Brann part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Brann is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 36% chance of winning, Brann a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Brann?
Record (3 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 0W | Draws 2 | Brann 1W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Brann in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-D-W. Brann (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack at 0.82x the league average against Brann's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Brann's attack (0.99x) against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 35/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
36%
2.75
33%
3.06
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
2.38
1.13
Brann xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
12%
8.53
9%
11.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.5 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.1 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.13 for Brann, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Brann?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 31 outings, Sarpsborg 08 FF have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 12W 5D 14L record — W-D-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Brann's form line: 5W 12D 14L from 31 games, 0.87 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-D. Brann haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Sarpsborg 08 FF are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Brann.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 1.40 PPG from 15 outings (6W 3D 6L).
On the road, Brann have gone 1W 6D 8L from 15 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sarpsborg 08 FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.35 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Brann in 71%.
Last 31 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
Brann
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Brann in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 12W 5D 14L in their last 31 games (1.32 PPG), while Brann have gone 5W 12D 14L in their last 31 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Brann away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.40 PPG; Brann away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Brann won 1-4 on 2 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Brann — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sarpsborg 08 FF
4
Draws
3
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Brann?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 3, Brann have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Brann 1-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 67% for Brann — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 60% for Brann. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Brann in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Brann?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's games and 67% of Brann's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches and 60% of Brann's.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Brann tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Brann in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sarpsborg 08 FF edge out Brann 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Brann 2-1 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.24 xG and Brann 1.13 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.82 / defence 0.97 against Brann attack 0.99 / defence 1.02, drawn from 35/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 36% | Draw 33% | Brann 31%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 68%, Brann 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Brann's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sarpsborg 08 FF arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.87. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.