Molde 2-1 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Molde at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Molde vs Haugesund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Haugesund travel to Aker Stadion to take on Molde. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 April 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Molde have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Molde at Aker Stadion this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Aker Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Molde are significantly better at Aker Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Haugesund — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Haugesund have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Molde 1.40 PPG, Haugesund 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Molde hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 6 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 0 for Haugesund, with 0 draws in between.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2023, ended 2–1 with Molde winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Molde and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Molde trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Haugesund trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Molde 60% versus Haugesund 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Molde 70% | Haugesund 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Molde 1.34 xG and Haugesund 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Molde attack 1.372 / defence 0.833 | Haugesund attack 0.930 / defence 0.841. League average goals — home 1.157 / away 1.390. Molde carry an above-average attack strength of 1.372 — their λ of 1.34 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 35 Molde games / 34 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Molde 43% | Draw 27% | Haugesund 30%. Fair-value odds: Molde 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Haugesund 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Molde are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Molde offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Molde 50% | Haugesund 50%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Molde vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Aker Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Apr 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Molde 43% | Draw 27% | Haugesund 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Molde 1.34 / Haugesund 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Molde attack 1.372 / def 0.833 | Haugesund attack 0.930 / def 0.841 | league avg home 1.157 / away 1.390 • Poisson stance: Molde (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Molde xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Haugesund xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Molde vs Haugesund kick off?
Molde vs Haugesund kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Aker Stadion.
What was the final score in Molde vs Haugesund?
Molde 2 - 1 Haugesund.
Where is Molde vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Aker Stadion.
What competition is Molde vs Haugesund part of?
Molde vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Molde vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Molde a 43% chance of winning, Haugesund a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Molde vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Molde and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Molde vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Haugesund?
Record (6 meetings): Molde 6W | Draws 0 | Haugesund 0W.
What form are Molde and Haugesund in?
Molde (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Haugesund (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Molde's attack at 1.37x the league average against Haugesund's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Molde's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
43%
2.35
27%
3.66
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Molde xG
Total xG
2.41
1.08
Haugesund xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
15%
6.89
8%
12.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.9 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Molde vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Molde and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Molde and 1.08 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Molde vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Molde have picked up 2.15 PPG on a 40W 9D 11L record — L-L-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Haugesund's form line: 19W 14D 27L from 60 games, 1.18 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Molde are the form team by 0.97 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Haugesund.
Venue Form
On home soil, Molde have posted 2.23 PPG from 30 outings (21W 4D 5L).
On the road, Haugesund have gone 6W 8D 16L from 30 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Molde come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Molde are averaging 2.27 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.27 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Molde have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Molde have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Molde
Current Season
Haugesund
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Molde and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Molde have gone 40W 9D 11L in their last 60 games (2.15 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 19W 14D 27L in their last 60 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Molde at home or Haugesund away?
Molde's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Molde at home: 2.23 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Molde or Haugesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Molde have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Haugesund in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Molde have won the last 10 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Oct 2024, when Molde won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Molde's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
10
Molde
0
Draws
0
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Molde have won 10, Haugesund have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Molde and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when Haugesund 0-2 Molde.
Who has won more matches between Molde and Haugesund?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Molde 57%, Haugesund 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Molde and 50% for Haugesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Molde keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Haugesund in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Molde home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Molde play Haugesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Molde's recent matches and 47% of Haugesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Molde vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Molde's matches and 50% of Haugesund's.
Do Molde and Haugesund tend to score early?
Molde have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Molde edge out Haugesund 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat Haugesund 2-1 at Aker Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Molde 1.34 xG and Haugesund 1.08 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Molde attack 1.37 / defence 0.83 against Haugesund attack 0.93 / defence 0.84, drawn from 35/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Molde 43% | Draw 27% | Haugesund 30%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Molde 70%, Haugesund 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Molde's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Haugesund's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.