Sandefjord 3-1 Molde – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Molde at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sandefjord vs Molde encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sandefjord host Molde at Jotun Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 May 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sandefjord stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sandefjord have posted 4W 3D 3L at Jotun Arena — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Molde — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Molde's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sandefjord at 1.30 PPG versus Molde's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sandefjord register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Molde in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Molde have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters against Sandefjord's 0 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 4.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Molde have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 4.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Sandefjord in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Molde in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sandefjord 62% and Molde 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sandefjord 73% | Molde 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.00 xG and Molde 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.925 / defence 0.939 | Molde attack 1.006 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.178 / away 1.374. Data: 34 Sandefjord games / 36 Molde games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 29% | Draw 28% | Molde 43%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | Molde 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Molde as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Molde offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging only 4.2 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Sandefjord 60% | Molde 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Jotun Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 29% | Draw 28% | Molde 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Sandefjord 1.00 / Molde 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.925 / def 0.939 | Molde attack 1.006 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.178 / away 1.374 • Poisson stance: Molde (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Molde xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Molde kick off?
Sandefjord vs Molde kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Jotun Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Molde?
Sandefjord 3 - 1 Molde.
Where is Sandefjord vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Jotun Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Molde part of?
Sandefjord vs Molde is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 29% chance of winning, Molde a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Sandefjord and Molde will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Molde?
Record (5 meetings): Sandefjord 0W | Draws 1 | Molde 4W.
What form are Sandefjord and Molde in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Molde (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sandefjord's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Molde's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. The same calculation in reverse, Molde's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
29%
3.49
28%
3.57
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.30
1.30
Molde xG
3.49
29%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
8%
12.81
16%
6.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 13.1 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.30 for Molde, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Molde?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Sandefjord have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 14W 13D 33L record — D-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Molde's form line: 40W 9D 11L from 60 games, 2.15 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Molde are the form team by 1.23 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sandefjord.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sandefjord have posted 1.17 PPG from 30 outings (8W 11D 11L).
On the road, Molde have gone 19W 5D 6L from 30 away games — 2.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Molde come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sandefjord are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.03 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 2.27 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Molde in 60%.
Defensively: Molde in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Current Season
Molde
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Molde in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 14W 13D 33L in their last 60 games (0.92 PPG), while Molde have gone 40W 9D 11L in their last 60 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Molde away?
Molde's away record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.17 PPG; Molde away: 2.07 PPG.
Have Sandefjord or Molde been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandefjord have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Molde in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sandefjord and Molde runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 30 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 May 2023, when Molde won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Molde specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sandefjord
1
Draws
5
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Molde?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 4, Molde have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Molde last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Molde 2-1 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Molde?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sandefjord at 70%, Molde at 63%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Sandefjord and 67% for Molde. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Molde?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Sandefjord's games and 63% of Molde's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sandefjord vs Molde usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Sandefjord's matches and 67% of Molde's.
Do Sandefjord and Molde tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Molde in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sandefjord cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Molde.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord beat Molde 3-1 at Jotun Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.00 xG and Molde 1.30 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sandefjord beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.93 / defence 0.94 against Molde attack 1.01 / defence 0.92, drawn from 34/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 29% | Draw 28% | Molde 43%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Sandefjord win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 73%, Molde 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Molde's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with Sandefjord winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sandefjord (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm. Molde (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.