Ham-Kam 0-2 Valerenga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ham-Kam vs Valerenga fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 29 as Ham-Kam welcome Valerenga to Briskeby Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 November 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ham-Kam — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ham-Kam have posted 4W 3D 3L at Briskeby Arena — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valerenga stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Valerenga's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ham-Kam at 1.40 PPG versus Valerenga's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Ham-Kam, 1 for Valerenga and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2023, ended 0–3 with Valerenga winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ham-Kam trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Valerenga trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 57% versus Valerenga 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 59% | Valerenga 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.64 xG and Valerenga 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.986 / defence 1.075 | Valerenga attack 0.978 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.745 / away 1.357. Data: 58 Ham-Kam games / 58 Valerenga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 43% | Draw 24% | Valerenga 33%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 2.33 | Draw 4.17 | Valerenga 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ham-Kam as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ham-Kam 40% | Valerenga 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Nov 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 43% | Draw 24% | Valerenga 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Ham-Kam 1.64 / Valerenga 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.986 / def 1.075 | Valerenga attack 0.978 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.745 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Valerenga xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Valerenga kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Valerenga kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Valerenga?
Ham-Kam 0 - 2 Valerenga.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Valerenga part of?
Ham-Kam vs Valerenga is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 43% chance of winning, Valerenga a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Ham-Kam and Valerenga will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Valerenga?
Record (3 meetings): Ham-Kam 0W | Draws 2 | Valerenga 1W.
What form are Ham-Kam and Valerenga in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Valerenga (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ham-Kam's attack at 0.99x the league average against Valerenga's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Valerenga's attack versus Ham-Kam's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
43%
2.34
24%
4.19
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
3.07
1.43
Valerenga xG
2.34
43%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
10%
9.74
6%
15.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.6 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.9 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.43 for Valerenga, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Valerenga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ham-Kam come into this having played 58 games, going 16W 16D 26L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W.
On the other side, Valerenga sit at 1.19 PPG from 58 outings (19W 12D 27L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ham-Kam on 1.10 PPG, Valerenga on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Ham-Kam's home form reads 10W 9D 10L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.34 PPG return.
Away from home, Valerenga have taken 1.07 points per game from 29 outings (8W 7D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.52 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga in 60%.
Last 58 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Current Season
Valerenga
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 16W 16D 26L in their last 58 games (1.10 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 19W 12D 27L in their last 58 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Valerenga away?
Ham-Kam's home record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.34 PPG; Valerenga away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 31 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Ham-Kam have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 May 2023, when Valerenga won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ham-Kam's record when hosting Valerenga specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Ham-Kam
3
Draws
2
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Valerenga?
From 8 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 3, Valerenga have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Valerenga last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2026, when Valerenga 0-3 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Valerenga?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 48%, Valerenga 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Ham-Kam) and 59% (Valerenga). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Ham-Kam have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play Valerenga?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Ham-Kam's games and 69% of Valerenga's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ham-Kam vs Valerenga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Ham-Kam's matches and 59% of Valerenga's.
Do Ham-Kam and Valerenga tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Valerenga in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Valerenga cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Ham-Kam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valerenga beat Ham-Kam 0-2 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.64 xG and Valerenga 1.43 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Ham-Kam fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.99 / defence 1.07 against Valerenga attack 0.98 / defence 0.95, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 43% | Draw 24% | Valerenga 33%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Valerenga win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 59%, Valerenga 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Valerenga's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ham-Kam 1.10 PPG, Valerenga 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valerenga win broke the near-deadlock. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward. Valerenga (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.