Brann 4-2 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brann vs Bodo/Glimt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Brann and Bodo/Glimt meet at Brann Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 November 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Brann's overall Eliteserien record this term: 9W 1D 0L from 10 games (2.80 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Brann's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Brann Stadion this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bodo/Glimt (all games): 8W 2D 0L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 2.60 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Bodo/Glimt have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.80 vs 2.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Brann register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Bodo/Glimt in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Brann, 2 for Bodo/Glimt and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Brann — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brann 57% versus Bodo/Glimt 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 57% | Bodo/Glimt 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.57 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 1.057 / defence 0.956 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.600 / defence 0.854. League average goals — home 1.745 / away 1.357. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack strength of 1.600 — the away xG of 2.07 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 28 Brann games / 58 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 29% | Draw 21% | Bodo/Glimt 49%. Fair-value odds: Brann 3.45 | Draw 4.76 | Bodo/Glimt 2.04. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 2.07) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.65 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Brann 70% | Bodo/Glimt 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Nov 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 29% | Draw 21% | Bodo/Glimt 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 69% | xG Brann 1.57 / Bodo/Glimt 2.07 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 1.057 / def 0.956 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.600 / def 0.854 | league avg home 1.745 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Brann xG
Expected Goals
2.07
Bodo/Glimt xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Brann vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Bodo/Glimt?
Brann 4 - 2 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Brann vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Brann vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 29% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 49% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Brann and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Bodo/Glimt?
Record (4 meetings): Brann 0W | Draws 2 | Bodo/Glimt 2W.
What form are Brann and Bodo/Glimt in?
Brann (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Brann's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Bodo/Glimt's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. Flip it around — Bodo/Glimt's attack (1.60x) against Brann's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 2.07.
These ratings are built from 28/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
29%
3.39
21%
4.73
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Brann xG
Total xG
3.65
2.07
Bodo/Glimt xG
3.39
29%
Home win
4.73
21%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.26
Clean Sheet
13%
7.96
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
4%
26.99
10%
9.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Brann and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Brann and 2.07 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 3.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Brann come into this having played 28 games, going 18W 4D 6L for 2.07 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Bodo/Glimt sit at 2.39 PPG from 28 outings (21W 4D 3L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.07 PPG for Brann against 2.39 for Bodo/Glimt. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Brann's home form reads 11W 2D 1L across 14 games on their own ground, a 2.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.07 PPG overall — Brann are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Bodo/Glimt have taken 2.29 points per game from 14 outings (10W 2D 2L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Brann are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.64 scored and 1.21 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt in 61%.
Last 28 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Current Season
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 18W 4D 6L in their last 28 games (2.07 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 21W 4D 3L in their last 28 (2.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Brann's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 2.50 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.29 PPG.
Have Brann or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brann have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Bodo/Glimt have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 5-1 on 7 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brann have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bodo/Glimt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Brann
2
Draws
6
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Brann have won 2, Bodo/Glimt have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Bodo/Glimt 3-1 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brann 64%, Bodo/Glimt 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Brann and 71% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Brann's games and 64% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brann vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Brann's matches and 71% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Brann and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brann cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Bodo/Glimt.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat Bodo/Glimt 4-2 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.57 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.07 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Brann beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 1.06 / defence 0.96 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.60 / defence 0.85, drawn from 28/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 29% | Draw 21% | Bodo/Glimt 49%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Brann win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 57%, Bodo/Glimt 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brann 2.07 PPG, Bodo/Glimt 2.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brann win broke the near-deadlock. Brann (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.21 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.