Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 39%, yet in-form Fredrikstad provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Briskeby Arena plays host to Ham-Kam versus Fredrikstad in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Sunday 22 November 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Current Form

Ham-Kam's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Briskeby Arena, Ham-Kam have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Ham-Kam are significantly better at Briskeby Arena than their overall form suggests.

Fredrikstad have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fredrikstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Fredrikstad have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Fredrikstad arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head ledger leans to Fredrikstad, who have claimed 3 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2026, ended 1–2 with Fredrikstad winning.

It is worth noting that Fredrikstad have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading

Ham-Kam half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Fredrikstad half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 58% versus Fredrikstad 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 67% | Fredrikstad 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.60 xG and Fredrikstad 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.937 / defence 1.151 | Fredrikstad attack 0.946 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.422. Data: 48 Ham-Kam games / 48 Fredrikstad games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 39% | Draw 24% | Fredrikstad 37%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 2.56 | Draw 4.17 | Fredrikstad 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Ham-Kam at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fredrikstad (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ham-Kam 60% | Fredrikstad 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights