Ham-Kam 0-2 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ham-Kam face Bodo/Glimt.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Ham-Kam and Bodo/Glimt meet at Briskeby in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Form

Ham-Kam (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Ham-Kam's home record at Briskeby: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Ham-Kam are significantly better at Briskeby than their overall form suggests.

Bodo/Glimt have collected 2.70 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 9W 0D 1L. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Bodo/Glimt have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bodo/Glimt are 1.90 PPG clear of Ham-Kam in recent Eliteserien fixtures (2.70 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Ham-Kam have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Bodo/Glimt in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head ledger leans to Bodo/Glimt, who have claimed 6 wins from 9 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 2 draws.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jul 2026, ended 0–3 with Bodo/Glimt winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bodo/Glimt have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading

Ham-Kam half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

Bodo/Glimt half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 60% versus Bodo/Glimt 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Ham-Kam 69% | Bodo/Glimt 75%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.27 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.867 / defence 1.326 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.199 / defence 0.821. League average goals — home 1.779 / away 1.461. Data: 52 Ham-Kam games / 52 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 18% | Draw 22% | Bodo/Glimt 60%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 5.56 | Draw 4.55 | Bodo/Glimt 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.27 / 2.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.59 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ham-Kam 70% | Bodo/Glimt 60% BTTS from recent games.

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