Vitesse 1-1 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PEC Zwolle at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vitesse vs PEC Zwolle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 10 as Vitesse welcome PEC Zwolle to GelreDome. Kick-off is set for Friday 27 October 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Vitesse have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vitesse have posted 3W 3D 4L at GelreDome — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at GelreDome. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, PEC Zwolle stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Vitesse) versus 1.30 (PEC Zwolle). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Vitesse, 0 for PEC Zwolle and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2021, ended 1–0 with Vitesse winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Vitesse trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
PEC Zwolle trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitesse 44% versus PEC Zwolle 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitesse 51% | PEC Zwolle 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 1.37 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.697 / defence 0.939 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.114 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.629 / away 1.416. Vitesse's attack strength of 0.697 is below the league average — the 1.37 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. PEC Zwolle bring a strong defensive rating of 1.209 — this is suppressing Vitesse's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Vitesse games / 9 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitesse 33% | Draw 29% | PEC Zwolle 38%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | PEC Zwolle 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.37 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PEC Zwolle at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Vitesse 20% | PEC Zwolle 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Friday 27 Oct 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 33% | Draw 29% | PEC Zwolle 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 60% | xG Vitesse 1.37 / PEC Zwolle 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.697 / def 0.939 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.114 / def 1.209 | league avg home 1.629 / away 1.416 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
1.48
PEC Zwolle xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitesse vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Vitesse vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 27 October 2023 at GelreDome.
What was the final score in Vitesse vs PEC Zwolle?
Vitesse 1 - 1 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Vitesse vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Vitesse vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 33% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Vitesse and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will Vitesse vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and PEC Zwolle?
Record (2 meetings): Vitesse 2W | Draws 0 | PEC Zwolle 0W.
What form are Vitesse and PEC Zwolle in?
Vitesse (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Vitesse's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against PEC Zwolle's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, PEC Zwolle's attack versus Vitesse's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
33%
3.02
29%
3.47
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Vitesse xG
Total xG
2.85
1.48
PEC Zwolle xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
8%
13.27
10%
10.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.7 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Vitesse and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Vitesse and 1.48 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vitesse's recent record stands at 12W 11D 20L from 43 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PEC Zwolle, meanwhile, have gone 26W 5D 12L across 43 games — 1.93 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours PEC Zwolle by 0.84 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vitesse heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Vitesse have managed 5W 7D 9L from 21 games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PEC Zwolle's away record stands at 12W 2D 7L across 21 trips, a 1.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PEC Zwolle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Vitesse are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 2.21 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitesse and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 12W 11D 20L in their last 43 games (1.09 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 26W 5D 12L in their last 43 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or PEC Zwolle away?
PEC Zwolle's away record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 1.05 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 1.81 PPG.
Have Vitesse or PEC Zwolle been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vitesse have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, PEC Zwolle in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vitesse and PEC Zwolle runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Vitesse's record when hosting PEC Zwolle specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Vitesse
1
Draws
1
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and PEC Zwolle?
From 4 meetings on record, Vitesse have won 2, PEC Zwolle have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2024, when PEC Zwolle 1-0 Vitesse.
Who has won more matches between Vitesse and PEC Zwolle?
Vitesse have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitesse 43%, PEC Zwolle 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 48% for Vitesse and 76% for PEC Zwolle. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vitesse keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Vitesse have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitesse play PEC Zwolle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Vitesse's recent matches and 67% of PEC Zwolle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vitesse vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Vitesse's matches and 76% of PEC Zwolle's.
Do Vitesse and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
Vitesse have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vitesse and PEC Zwolle share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at GelreDome, Regular Season - 10, as Vitesse and PEC Zwolle drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.37 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.48 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.70 / defence 0.94 against PEC Zwolle attack 1.11 / defence 1.21, drawn from 43/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitesse 33% | Draw 29% | PEC Zwolle 38%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 51%, PEC Zwolle 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitesse's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PEC Zwolle arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.