AZ Alkmaar 1-2 NEC Nijmegen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AZ Alkmaar (68%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AZ Alkmaar face NEC Nijmegen.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen meet at AFAS Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 6 December 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AZ Alkmaar have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AZ Alkmaar at AFAS Stadion this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at AFAS Stadion.
NEC Nijmegen's overall Eredivisie record this term: 1W 6D 3L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D D D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NEC Nijmegen away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in AZ Alkmaar's favour (2.10 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: AZ Alkmaar 2W, NEC Nijmegen 0W, 2D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2023, ended 3–0 with AZ Alkmaar winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
AZ Alkmaar — key trading statistics (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
NEC Nijmegen — key trading statistics (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AZ Alkmaar 57% versus NEC Nijmegen 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AZ Alkmaar 60% | NEC Nijmegen 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 2.37 xG and NEC Nijmegen 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.300 / defence 0.634 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.984 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.679 / away 1.489. AZ Alkmaar carry an above-average attack strength of 1.300 — their λ of 2.37 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. AZ Alkmaar's defence rating of 0.634 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 AZ Alkmaar games / 47 NEC Nijmegen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 68% | Draw 21% | NEC Nijmegen 12%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 1.47 | Draw 4.76 | NEC Nijmegen 8.33. The model has a clear lean to AZ Alkmaar (68%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AZ Alkmaar at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.30 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: AZ Alkmaar 40% | NEC Nijmegen 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 6 Dec 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 68% | Draw 21% | NEC Nijmegen 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 56% | xG AZ Alkmaar 2.37 / NEC Nijmegen 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.300 / def 0.634 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.984 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.679 / away 1.489 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
0.93
NEC Nijmegen xG
56%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 6 December 2023 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen?
AZ Alkmaar 1 - 2 NEC Nijmegen.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 68% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 12% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen will score (BTTS).
Will AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen?
Record (4 meetings): AZ Alkmaar 2W | Draws 2 | NEC Nijmegen 0W.
What form are AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen in?
AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
AZ Alkmaar's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against NEC Nijmegen's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.37. Flip it around — NEC Nijmegen's attack (0.98x) against AZ Alkmaar's defence (0.63x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
68%
1.47
21%
4.87
12%
8.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
3.30
0.93
NEC Nijmegen xG
1.47
68%
Home win
4.87
21%
Draw
8.60
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
9%
10.65
Win to Nil
27%
3.74
1%
91.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.8 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 0.93 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AZ Alkmaar come into this having played 47 games, going 29W 10D 8L for 2.06 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-D. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, NEC Nijmegen sit at 1.09 PPG from 47 outings (10W 21D 16L), a run that reads D-D-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AZ Alkmaar carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.97 PPG clear of NEC Nijmegen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
AZ Alkmaar's home form reads 13W 6D 3L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.05 PPG return.
Away from home, NEC Nijmegen have taken 1.09 points per game from 22 outings (5W 9D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 2.09 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 1.36 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Defensively: AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 29W 10D 8L in their last 47 games (2.06 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 10W 21D 16L in their last 47 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or NEC Nijmegen away?
AZ Alkmaar's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 2.05 PPG; NEC Nijmegen away: 1.09 PPG.
Have AZ Alkmaar or NEC Nijmegen been keeping clean sheets recently?
AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, NEC Nijmegen in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
NEC Nijmegen have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AZ Alkmaar won 0-3 on 21 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AZ Alkmaar have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against NEC Nijmegen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
AZ Alkmaar
3
Draws
3
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen?
From 10 meetings on record, AZ Alkmaar have won 4, NEC Nijmegen have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when AZ Alkmaar 1-3 NEC Nijmegen.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
NEC Nijmegen see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AZ Alkmaar 64%, NEC Nijmegen 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (AZ Alkmaar) and 36% (NEC Nijmegen).
On the defensive side: AZ Alkmaar keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; NEC Nijmegen in 32%; NEC Nijmegen in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AZ Alkmaar play NEC Nijmegen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of AZ Alkmaar's recent matches and 36% of NEC Nijmegen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of AZ Alkmaar's recent games and 36% of NEC Nijmegen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AZ Alkmaar and NEC Nijmegen tend to score early?
AZ Alkmaar have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, NEC Nijmegen in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as NEC Nijmegen defy the odds to beat AZ Alkmaar 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEC Nijmegen beat AZ Alkmaar 1-2 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 2.37 xG and NEC Nijmegen 0.93 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. AZ Alkmaar fell 1.4 short of their projected output. NEC Nijmegen outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.30 / defence 0.63 against NEC Nijmegen attack 0.98 / defence 1.08, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 68% | Draw 21% | NEC Nijmegen 12%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a NEC Nijmegen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 60%, NEC Nijmegen 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with NEC Nijmegen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.36 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.