PEC Zwolle 0-2 Utrecht – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates PEC Zwolle at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this PEC Zwolle vs Utrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
PEC Zwolle and Utrecht meet at MAC³PARK Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 31 August 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
PEC Zwolle's overall Eredivisie record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. PEC Zwolle have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PEC Zwolle's home record at MAC³PARK Stadion: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at MAC³PARK Stadion this season.
Utrecht have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Utrecht have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Utrecht's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.10 PPG for PEC Zwolle against 1.80 for Utrecht. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — PEC Zwolle lead 1W to 3W over the last 6 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2025, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
PEC Zwolle half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Utrecht half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 53% versus Utrecht 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 42% | Utrecht 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.50 xG and Utrecht 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.894 / defence 0.812 | Utrecht attack 1.035 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.757 / away 1.288. Data: 36 PEC Zwolle games / 37 Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 46% | Draw 28% | Utrecht 26%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Utrecht 3.85. PEC Zwolle hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PEC Zwolle at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: PEC Zwolle 50% | Utrecht 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Utrecht | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Aug 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 46% | Draw 28% | Utrecht 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG PEC Zwolle 1.50 / Utrecht 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.894 / def 0.812 | Utrecht attack 1.035 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.757 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Utrecht xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Utrecht kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Utrecht kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 31 August 2025 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Utrecht?
PEC Zwolle 0 - 2 Utrecht.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Utrecht part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Utrecht is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 46% chance of winning, Utrecht a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Utrecht?
Record (6 meetings): PEC Zwolle 1W | Draws 2 | Utrecht 3W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and Utrecht in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Utrecht (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates PEC Zwolle's attack at 0.89x the league average against Utrecht's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Utrecht's attack (1.03x) against PEC Zwolle's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 36/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
46%
2.19
28%
3.58
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
2.58
1.08
Utrecht xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
15%
6.47
6%
16.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.3 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.08 for Utrecht, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
PEC Zwolle's recent record stands at 12W 11D 13L from 36 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Utrecht, meanwhile, have gone 19W 10D 7L across 36 games — 1.86 PPG, with D-D-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Utrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Utrecht by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over PEC Zwolle heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, PEC Zwolle have managed 8W 4D 6L from 18 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Utrecht's away record stands at 9W 7D 2L across 18 trips, a 1.89 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Utrecht are on 1.94 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Utrecht in 64%.
Last 36 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Early Season
Utrecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and Utrecht in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 12W 11D 13L in their last 36 games (1.31 PPG), while Utrecht have gone 19W 10D 7L in their last 36 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Utrecht away?
Utrecht's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.56 PPG; Utrecht away: 1.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Utrecht won 5-1 on 25 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PEC Zwolle have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Utrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
PEC Zwolle
3
Draws
4
Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Utrecht?
From 8 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 1, Utrecht have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Utrecht 1-1 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and Utrecht?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 50%, Utrecht 78% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (PEC Zwolle) and 72% (Utrecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of PEC Zwolle's games and 78% of Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PEC Zwolle vs Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 39% of PEC Zwolle's matches and 72% of Utrecht's.
Do PEC Zwolle and Utrecht tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Utrecht in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Utrecht cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over PEC Zwolle.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utrecht beat PEC Zwolle 0-2 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.50 xG and Utrecht 1.08 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. PEC Zwolle fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Utrecht outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.89 / defence 0.81 against Utrecht attack 1.03 / defence 0.95, drawn from 36/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 46% | Draw 28% | Utrecht 26%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Utrecht win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 42%, Utrecht 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Utrecht's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Utrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.31. Form held, and they took the win. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Utrecht (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.