Heracles 3-4 Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Ajax (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Heracles face Ajax.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ajax make the trip to Asito Stadion to face Heracles in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Sunday 20 October 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
Heracles (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heracles's home record at Asito Stadion: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Ajax's overall Eredivisie record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ajax have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ajax's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Ajax are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Ajax hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 4 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Jan 2024, ended 2–4 with Ajax winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Ajax have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Heracles half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Ajax half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Heracles 50% and Ajax 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Heracles 68% | Ajax 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.19 xG and Ajax 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 0.805 / defence 1.034 | Ajax attack 1.045 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.268. Data: 42 Heracles games / 40 Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 31% | Draw 30% | Ajax 39%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Ajax 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ajax are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ajax if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Heracles 40% | Ajax 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs Ajax | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Asito Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Oct 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 31% | Draw 30% | Ajax 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Heracles 1.19 / Ajax 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 0.805 / def 1.034 | Ajax attack 1.045 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.572 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Ajax (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Ajax xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs Ajax kick off?
Heracles vs Ajax kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 20 October 2024 at Asito Stadion.
What was the final score in Heracles vs Ajax?
Heracles 3 - 4 Ajax.
Where is Heracles vs Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Asito Stadion.
What competition is Heracles vs Ajax part of?
Heracles vs Ajax is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs Ajax?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 31% chance of winning, Ajax a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs Ajax?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Heracles and Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Ajax?
Record (4 meetings): Heracles 0W | Draws 1 | Ajax 3W.
What form are Heracles and Ajax in?
Heracles (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Ajax (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Heracles vs Ajax?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Heracles's attack at 0.81x the league average against Ajax's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ajax's attack (1.04x) against Heracles's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 42/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajax Win
31%
3.25
30%
3.36
39%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Heracles xG
Total xG
2.56
1.37
Ajax xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.53
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
8%
12.80
12%
8.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.6 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.6 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Heracles and Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Heracles and 1.37 for Ajax, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs Ajax?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Heracles come into this having played 40 games, going 10W 9D 21L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ajax sit at 1.72 PPG from 40 outings (19W 12D 9L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Ajax, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ajax carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of Heracles — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Heracles's home form reads 6W 6D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Ajax have taken 1.35 points per game from 20 outings (7W 6D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
Heracles are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 2.05 conceded per game recently; Ajax are on 2.17 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajax in 72%.
Last 40 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Blended
Ajax
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and Ajax in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 10W 9D 21L in their last 40 games (0.98 PPG), while Ajax have gone 19W 12D 9L in their last 40 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or Ajax away?
Ajax's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 1.20 PPG; Ajax away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Ajax have taken the last 7 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ajax won 4-0 on 16 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Heracles have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ajax — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Heracles
1
Draws
7
Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Ajax?
From 8 meetings on record, Heracles have won 0, Ajax have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Heracles 0-3 Ajax.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and Ajax?
Ajax have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 55% for Heracles, 80% for Ajax — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Heracles and 80% for Ajax. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 70% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play Ajax?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Heracles's games and 80% of Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heracles vs Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Heracles's matches and 80% of Ajax's.
Do Heracles and Ajax tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Ajax in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ajax edge out Heracles 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajax beat Heracles 3-4 at Asito Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.19 xG and Ajax 1.37 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Heracles beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ajax outscored their 1.37 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 0.81 / defence 1.03 against Ajax attack 1.04 / defence 0.94, drawn from 42/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 31% | Draw 30% | Ajax 39%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 68%, Ajax 78%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Ajax's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajax arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Heracles (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ajax (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.95 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.