Cambuur vs Groningen – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Groningen at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambuur vs Groningen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Groningen make the trip to Kooi Stadion to face Cambuur in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Sunday 20 December 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cambuur have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur at Kooi Stadion this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Groningen's overall Eredivisie record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D D W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Groningen's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Cambuur, 1.40 for Groningen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Cambuur register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Groningen in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cambuur lead 3W to 3W over the last 6 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 0–3 with Groningen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Cambuur goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Groningen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cambuur 70% and Groningen 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 66% | Groningen 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.65 xG and Groningen 2.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 0.970 / defence 1.310 | Groningen attack 1.248 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.739 / away 1.812. Groningen have an above-average attack strength of 1.248 — the away xG of 2.96 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 9 Cambuur games / 43 Groningen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 19% | Draw 18% | Groningen 64%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 5.26 | Draw 5.56 | Groningen 1.56. The model has a clear lean to Groningen (64%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 84% | BTTS probability 77% | Total xG 4.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 84% — a total xG of 4.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 77% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 2.96) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Groningen are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.62 combined xG gives a 84% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 77%. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 70% | Groningen 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Kooi Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Dec 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 19% | Draw 18% | Groningen 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 84% | BTTS 77% | xG Cambuur 1.65 / Groningen 2.96 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 0.970 / def 1.310 | Groningen attack 1.248 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.739 / away 1.812 • Poisson stance: Groningen (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
2.96
Groningen xG
77%
BTTS
95%
Over 1.5
84%
Over 2.5
68%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Groningen kick off?
Cambuur vs Groningen is scheduled to kick off at 13:30 on Sunday 20 December 2026 at Kooi Stadion.
Where is Cambuur vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at Kooi Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Groningen part of?
Cambuur vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 19% chance of winning, Groningen a 64% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 77% probability that both Cambuur and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 84%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Groningen?
Record (6 meetings): Cambuur 3W | Draws 0 | Groningen 3W.
What form are Cambuur and Groningen in?
Cambuur (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Groningen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cambuur's attack rating (0.97) and Groningen's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Groningen's attack (1.25x) against Cambuur's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 2.96.
These ratings are built from 9/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.2%. Close behind: 1-3 (7.1%), 2-2 (5.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 20% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
19%
5.34
18%
5.69
64%
1.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.1%
Away win
2 – 2
5.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Cambuur xG
Total xG
4.62
2.96
Groningen xG
5.34
19%
Home win
5.69
18%
Draw
1.57
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
84%
Over 2.5
1.19
16%
Under 2.5
6.25
68%
Over 3.5
1.47
32%
Under 3.5
3.12
49%
Over 4.5
2.04
51%
Under 4.5
1.96
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
77%
BTTS Yes
1.29
23%
BTTS No
4.42
Clean Sheet
5%
19.36
19%
5.22
Win to Nil
1%
103.40
12%
8.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.0 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.9 |
| 1 | 1.6 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 3.1 |
| 2 | 1.4 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 2.6 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.2%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Cambuur and 2.96 for Groningen, a combined total of 4.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Groningen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cambuur come into this having played 44 games, going 23W 12D 9L for 1.84 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-D. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Groningen sit at 1.41 PPG from 44 outings (18W 8D 18L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cambuur carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Groningen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Cambuur's home form reads 12W 6D 4L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.91 PPG return.
Away from home, Groningen have taken 1.36 points per game from 22 outings (9W 3D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambuur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cambuur are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.61 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Groningen in 61%.
Last 44 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Blended
Groningen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and Groningen in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 23W 12D 9L in their last 44 games (1.84 PPG), while Groningen have gone 18W 8D 18L in their last 44 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Groningen away?
Cambuur's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 1.91 PPG; Groningen away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Groningen won 3-0 on 20 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cambuur have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Groningen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Cambuur
0
Draws
3
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Groningen?
From 6 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 3, Groningen have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when Groningen 3-0 Cambuur.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 68% for Cambuur, 64% for Groningen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Cambuur) and 50% (Groningen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play Groningen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Cambuur's games and 64% of Groningen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Cambuur's matches and 50% of Groningen's.
Do Cambuur and Groningen tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Groningen in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.