Almere City FC 0-5 Twente – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Twente at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Almere City FC vs Twente encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Yanmar Stadion plays host to Almere City FC versus Twente in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Sunday 22 September 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
Almere City FC (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Almere City FC have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Almere City FC have posted 0W 5D 5L at Yanmar Stadion — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Twente have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W D L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Twente have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Twente's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Twente are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Almere City FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Twente in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Almere City FC 0W, Twente 2W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2024, ended 1–3 with Twente winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Almere City FC — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Twente — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 51% versus Twente 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 49% | Twente 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.21 xG and Twente 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.771 / defence 1.390 | Twente attack 1.063 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.269. Almere City FC's attack strength of 0.771 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 39 Almere City FC games / 39 Twente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 22% | Draw 28% | Twente 50%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 4.55 | Draw 3.57 | Twente 2.00. Twente hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.21 / 1.88) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Twente are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Twente if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 70% | Twente 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Twente | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Sep 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 22% | Draw 28% | Twente 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Almere City FC 1.21 / Twente 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.771 / def 1.390 | Twente attack 1.063 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.721 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Twente (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.88
Twente xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Twente kick off?
Almere City FC vs Twente kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs Twente?
Almere City FC 0 - 5 Twente.
Where is Almere City FC vs Twente being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Twente part of?
Almere City FC vs Twente is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Twente?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 22% chance of winning, Twente a 50% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Twente the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Twente?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Almere City FC and Twente will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Twente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Twente?
Record (2 meetings): Almere City FC 0W | Draws 0 | Twente 2W.
What form are Almere City FC and Twente in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Twente (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Almere City FC's attack rating (0.77) and Twente's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Twente's attack (1.06x) against Almere City FC's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.88.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Twente Win
22%
4.62
28%
3.55
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
3.08
1.88
Twente xG
4.62
22%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
15%
6.52
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
3%
30.15
15%
6.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Twente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Twente expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.88 for Twente, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Twente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Almere City FC's recent record stands at 7W 15D 17L from 39 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Almere City FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Twente, meanwhile, have gone 23W 8D 8L across 39 games — 1.97 PPG, with W-D-L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Twente, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Twente by 1.05 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Almere City FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Almere City FC have managed 3W 8D 8L from 19 games — 0.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Twente's away record stands at 8W 5D 6L across 19 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.97 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Twente's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Twente come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Almere City FC are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Twente are on 1.95 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Early Season
Twente
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Twente in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 7W 15D 17L in their last 39 games (0.92 PPG), while Twente have gone 23W 8D 8L in their last 39 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Twente away?
Twente's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 0.89 PPG; Twente away: 1.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Twente go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Twente won 0-5 on 22 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almere City FC have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Twente — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Almere City FC
0
Draws
4
Twente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Twente?
From 4 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 0, Twente have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Twente last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2025, when Twente 1-0 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and Twente?
Twente have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Twente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 26% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 53%, Twente 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Almere City FC) and 68% (Twente). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Twente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Twente?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Almere City FC's games and 63% of Twente's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almere City FC vs Twente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Almere City FC's matches and 68% of Twente's.
Do Almere City FC and Twente tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Twente in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Twente run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Almere City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Twente beat Almere City FC 0-5 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.21 xG and Twente 1.88 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Almere City FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Twente outscored their 1.88 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.77 / defence 1.39 against Twente attack 1.06 / defence 0.91, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 22% | Draw 28% | Twente 50%, with Twente to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 49%, Twente 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Twente's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Twente arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 0.92. That form edge translated into the three points. Almere City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Twente (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.