Waalwijk 1-2 Sparta Rotterdam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Rotterdam at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 6 as Waalwijk welcome Sparta Rotterdam to Mandemakers Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 September 2024 at 17:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Waalwijk — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Waalwijk have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Mandemakers Stadion, Waalwijk have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Waalwijk are significantly better at Mandemakers Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Sparta Rotterdam have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sparta Rotterdam have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sparta Rotterdam — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Waalwijk register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sparta Rotterdam in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Waalwijk have won 1, Sparta Rotterdam 1, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jan 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Waalwijk in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Sparta Rotterdam in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waalwijk 54% versus Sparta Rotterdam 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 56% | Sparta Rotterdam 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.18 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.783 / defence 1.255 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.131 / defence 0.859. League average goals — home 1.746 / away 1.256. Waalwijk's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 39 Waalwijk games / 39 Sparta Rotterdam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 22% | Draw 29% | Sparta Rotterdam 49%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 4.55 | Draw 3.45 | Sparta Rotterdam 2.04. Sparta Rotterdam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.18 / 1.78) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sparta Rotterdam are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Rotterdam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 60% | Sparta Rotterdam 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 22% | Draw 29% | Sparta Rotterdam 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Waalwijk 1.18 / Sparta Rotterdam 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.783 / def 1.255 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.131 / def 0.859 | league avg home 1.746 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Sparta Rotterdam xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam kick off?
Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Waalwijk 1 - 2 Sparta Rotterdam.
Where is Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam part of?
Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 22% chance of winning, Sparta Rotterdam a 49% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Waalwijk and Sparta Rotterdam will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Sparta Rotterdam?
Record (6 meetings): Waalwijk 1W | Draws 4 | Sparta Rotterdam 1W.
What form are Waalwijk and Sparta Rotterdam in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Waalwijk's attack at 0.78x the league average against Sparta Rotterdam's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Rotterdam's attack versus Waalwijk's defence, projects 1.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
22%
4.46
29%
3.50
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
2.96
1.78
Sparta Rotterdam xG
4.46
22%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
17%
5.95
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
4%
26.57
15%
6.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 9.3 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Sparta Rotterdam expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.78 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 39 outings, Waalwijk have picked up 0.74 PPG on a 7W 8D 24L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Waalwijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sparta Rotterdam's form line: 14W 10D 15L from 39 games, 1.33 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Sparta Rotterdam are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Waalwijk.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Waalwijk have posted 0.95 PPG from 19 outings (4W 6D 9L).
On the road, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 8W 3D 8L from 19 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Rotterdam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Waalwijk are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Sparta Rotterdam are on 1.41 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sparta Rotterdam in 62%.
Last 39 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Early Season
Sparta Rotterdam
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Sparta Rotterdam in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 7W 8D 24L in their last 39 games (0.74 PPG), while Sparta Rotterdam have gone 14W 10D 15L in their last 39 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Sparta Rotterdam away?
Sparta Rotterdam's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 0.95 PPG; Sparta Rotterdam away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Waalwijk and Sparta Rotterdam runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Waalwijk's record when hosting Sparta Rotterdam specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Waalwijk
5
Draws
2
Sparta Rotterdam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Sparta Rotterdam?
From 8 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 1, Sparta Rotterdam have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Sparta Rotterdam last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2025, when Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Sparta Rotterdam?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sparta Rotterdam see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 63%, Sparta Rotterdam 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Waalwijk) and 53% (Sparta Rotterdam). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Waalwijk have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Sparta Rotterdam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Sparta Rotterdam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Waalwijk's games and 63% of Sparta Rotterdam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Waalwijk's matches and 53% of Sparta Rotterdam's.
Do Waalwijk and Sparta Rotterdam tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Sparta Rotterdam in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sparta Rotterdam edge out Waalwijk 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Rotterdam beat Waalwijk 1-2 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.18 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.78 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.78 / defence 1.25 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.13 / defence 0.86, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 22% | Draw 29% | Sparta Rotterdam 49%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 56%, Sparta Rotterdam 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Rotterdam arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.74. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.