Waalwijk 4-2 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cambuur at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Waalwijk vs Cambuur encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 13 as Waalwijk welcome Cambuur to Mandemakers Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 24 October 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Waalwijk have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Mandemakers Stadion, Waalwijk have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cambuur — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cambuur have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Cambuur's 2.40 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Waalwijk's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Waalwijk, 2 for Cambuur and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 May 2023, ended 0–4 with Cambuur winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Waalwijk in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Cambuur in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waalwijk 63% versus Cambuur 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 65% | Cambuur 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.07 xG and Cambuur 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.852 / defence 1.161 | Cambuur attack 1.047 / defence 0.697. League average goals — home 1.803 / away 1.362. Cambuur's defence strength of 0.697 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 12 Waalwijk games / 50 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 25% | Draw 24% | Cambuur 51%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 4.00 | Draw 4.17 | Cambuur 1.96. Cambuur hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cambuur as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cambuur offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 70% | Cambuur 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Cambuur | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 24 Oct 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 25% | Draw 24% | Cambuur 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Waalwijk 1.07 / Cambuur 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.852 / def 1.161 | Cambuur attack 1.047 / def 0.697 | league avg home 1.803 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Cambuur xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Cambuur kick off?
Waalwijk vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 24 October 2025 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Cambuur?
Waalwijk 4 - 2 Cambuur.
Where is Waalwijk vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Cambuur part of?
Waalwijk vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 25% chance of winning, Cambuur a 51% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Waalwijk and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Cambuur?
Record (4 meetings): Waalwijk 1W | Draws 1 | Cambuur 2W.
What form are Waalwijk and Cambuur in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Cambuur (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Waalwijk's attack at 0.85x the league average against Cambuur's defence at 0.70x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cambuur's attack versus Waalwijk's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
25%
4.07
24%
4.10
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
2.73
1.66
Cambuur xG
4.07
25%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
19%
5.24
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
5%
21.35
18%
5.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 10.8 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.66 for Cambuur, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Waalwijk's recent record stands at 11W 10D 25L from 46 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cambuur, meanwhile, have gone 29W 8D 9L across 46 games — 2.07 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cambuur by 1.14 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Waalwijk heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Waalwijk have managed 7W 5D 11L from 23 games — 1.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cambuur's away record stands at 13W 5D 5L across 23 trips, a 1.91 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambuur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Waalwijk are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.89 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Cambuur in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
Cambuur
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 11W 10D 25L in their last 46 games (0.93 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 29W 8D 9L in their last 46 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Cambuur away?
Cambuur's away record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.13 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.91 PPG.
Have Waalwijk or Cambuur been keeping clean sheets recently?
Waalwijk have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Cambuur in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Sep 2022, when Waalwijk won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Waalwijk's record when hosting Cambuur specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Waalwijk
2
Draws
2
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Cambuur?
From 6 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 2, Cambuur have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Cambuur 1-1 Waalwijk.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 56%, Cambuur 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Waalwijk) and 44% (Cambuur).
On the defensive side: Cambuur in 39%; Waalwijk have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Cambuur?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Waalwijk's recent matches and 48% of Cambuur's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Waalwijk vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Waalwijk's recent games and 44% of Cambuur's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Waalwijk and Cambuur tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Waalwijk cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Cambuur.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waalwijk beat Cambuur 4-2 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.07 xG and Cambuur 1.66 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Waalwijk beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.85 / defence 1.16 against Cambuur attack 1.05 / defence 0.70, drawn from 12/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 25% | Draw 24% | Cambuur 51%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Waalwijk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 65%, Cambuur 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Cambuur's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 0.93. Form was overturned, with Waalwijk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Waalwijk (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm. Cambuur (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.