Vitesse 0-6 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Cambuur at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vitesse vs Cambuur encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
GelreDome plays host to Vitesse versus Cambuur in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Friday 22 November 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Vitesse's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vitesse have posted 1W 5D 4L at GelreDome — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cambuur have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur's away record: 5W 0D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Cambuur are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Across 4 previous meetings, Vitesse are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2023, ended 2–0 with Vitesse winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Vitesse and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Vitesse half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Cambuur half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitesse 58% versus Cambuur 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitesse 58% | Cambuur 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 0.81 xG and Cambuur 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.733 / defence 1.192 | Cambuur attack 1.009 / defence 0.736. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.389. Vitesse's attack strength of 0.733 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Cambuur's defence strength of 0.736 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 14 Vitesse games / 52 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitesse 18% | Draw 25% | Cambuur 57%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 5.56 | Draw 4.00 | Cambuur 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Cambuur (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Vitesse dominate the H2H record, yet Cambuur are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cambuur at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Vitesse 80% | Cambuur 20%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs Cambuur | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Friday 22 Nov 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 18% | Draw 25% | Cambuur 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 46% | xG Vitesse 0.81 / Cambuur 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.733 / def 1.192 | Cambuur attack 1.009 / def 0.736 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (57%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Cambuur xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitesse vs Cambuur kick off?
Vitesse vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 22 November 2024 at GelreDome.
What was the final score in Vitesse vs Cambuur?
Vitesse 0 - 6 Cambuur.
Where is Vitesse vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs Cambuur part of?
Vitesse vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 18% chance of winning, Cambuur a 57% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Vitesse and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will Vitesse vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Cambuur?
Record (4 meetings): Vitesse 4W | Draws 0 | Cambuur 0W.
What form are Vitesse and Cambuur in?
Vitesse (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Cambuur (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Vitesse vs Cambuur?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Vitesse's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Cambuur's defensive record (0.74x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.81. Flip it around — Cambuur's attack (1.01x) against Vitesse's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from 14/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.4%), 0-2 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
18%
5.68
25%
3.97
57%
1.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.6%
Away win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Vitesse xG
Total xG
2.48
1.67
Cambuur xG
5.68
18%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
1.75
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
19%
5.31
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
3%
30.12
25%
3.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 13.9 | 11.6 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.3 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Vitesse and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Vitesse and 1.67 for Cambuur, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs Cambuur?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 48 outings, Vitesse have picked up 0.75 PPG on a 8W 12D 28L record — L-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cambuur's form line: 18W 8D 22L from 48 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cambuur are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vitesse.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Vitesse have posted 0.67 PPG from 24 outings (2W 10D 12L).
On the road, Cambuur have gone 11W 2D 11L from 24 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambuur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Vitesse are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.08 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.58 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur in 60%.
Last 48 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Blended
Cambuur
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitesse and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 8W 12D 28L in their last 48 games (0.75 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 18W 8D 22L in their last 48 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or Cambuur away?
Cambuur's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 0.67 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Cambuur go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cambuur won 0-6 on 22 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vitesse have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cambuur — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Vitesse
0
Draws
4
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Cambuur?
From 8 meetings on record, Vitesse have won 4, Cambuur have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Cambuur 2-1 Vitesse.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitesse 67%, Cambuur 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Vitesse) and 58% (Cambuur).
On the defensive side: Vitesse have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitesse play Cambuur?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Vitesse's games and 54% of Cambuur's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vitesse vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Vitesse's recent games and 58% of Cambuur's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vitesse and Cambuur tend to score early?
Vitesse have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cambuur run riot with a 0-6 hammering of Vitesse.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat Vitesse 0-6 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 16, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 0.81 xG and Cambuur 1.67 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-6 for 6 actual goals. Vitesse fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Cambuur outscored their 1.67 projection by 4.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.73 / defence 1.19 against Cambuur attack 1.01 / defence 0.74, drawn from 14/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitesse 18% | Draw 25% | Cambuur 57%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 58%, Cambuur 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitesse's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cambuur's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.75. That form edge translated into the three points. Vitesse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cambuur (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.