Roda vs FC Volendam – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates Roda at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Roda vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Parkstad Limburg Stadion plays host to Roda versus FC Volendam in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 14 November 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form

Roda (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Roda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Roda's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Parkstad Limburg Stadion this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

FC Volendam have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

FC Volendam away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Roda, 1.00 for FC Volendam — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Roda 0W, FC Volendam 1W, 3D.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2025, ended 2–3 with FC Volendam winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Roda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).

FC Volendam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Roda 63% and FC Volendam 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 56% | FC Volendam 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 2.39 xG and FC Volendam 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.884 / defence 0.984 | FC Volendam attack 0.977 / defence 1.416. League average goals — home 1.909 / away 1.702. FC Volendam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.416 — this is suppressing Roda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Roda games / 5 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Roda 55% | Draw 19% | FC Volendam 26%. Fair-value odds: Roda 1.82 | Draw 5.26 | FC Volendam 3.85. The model has a clear lean to Roda (55%) — a 29pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 4.03. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.03 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.39 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 4.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 77% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 73% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Roda 50% | FC Volendam 50%.

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