Jong Utrecht 0-0 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Utrecht at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 13 as Jong Utrecht welcome FC OSS to Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch. Kick-off is set for Friday 24 October 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong Utrecht have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Jong Utrecht have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC OSS — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC OSS's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Jong Utrecht at 1.30 PPG versus FC OSS's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jong Utrecht register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, FC OSS in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, FC OSS have the better historical record — 4 wins from 7 previous contests against 1 for Jong Utrecht.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. FC OSS have won 4 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Jong Utrecht trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
FC OSS trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 54% versus FC OSS 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 56% | FC OSS 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 2.33 xG and FC OSS 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 1.102 / defence 1.068 | FC OSS attack 0.985 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.803 / away 1.362. Data: 50 Jong Utrecht games / 50 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 58% | Draw 20% | FC OSS 23%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 1.72 | Draw 5.00 | FC OSS 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Jong Utrecht (58%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.76. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.76 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.33 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jong Utrecht as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong Utrecht 60% | FC OSS 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch • Kick-off: Friday 24 Oct 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 58% | Draw 20% | FC OSS 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 69% | xG Jong Utrecht 2.33 / FC OSS 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 1.102 / def 1.068 | FC OSS attack 0.985 / def 1.172 | league avg home 1.803 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Jong Utrecht (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.43
FC OSS xG
69%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 24 October 2025 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS?
Jong Utrecht 0 - 0 FC OSS.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS part of?
Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 58% chance of winning, FC OSS a 23% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Jong Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Jong Utrecht and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and FC OSS?
Record (7 meetings): Jong Utrecht 1W | Draws 2 | FC OSS 4W.
What form are Jong Utrecht and FC OSS in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. FC OSS (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Jong Utrecht's attack at 1.10x the league average against FC OSS's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 2.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC OSS's attack versus Jong Utrecht's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.8%), 3-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Utrecht Win
58%
1.74
20%
5.12
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
3 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
3.76
1.43
FC OSS xG
1.74
58%
Home win
5.12
20%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.20
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
10%
10.27
Win to Nil
14%
7.28
2%
44.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.43 for FC OSS, a combined total of 3.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jong Utrecht's recent record stands at 8W 13D 29L from 50 games, a 0.74 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC OSS, meanwhile, have gone 11W 18D 21L across 50 games — 1.02 PPG, with L-L-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong Utrecht on 0.74 PPG, FC OSS on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Jong Utrecht have managed 6W 8D 11L from 25 games — 1.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC OSS's away record stands at 1W 12D 12L across 25 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC OSS's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong Utrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong Utrecht are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 2.06 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 0.98 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 8W 13D 29L in their last 50 games (0.74 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 11W 18D 21L in their last 50 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or FC OSS away?
Jong Utrecht's home record (1.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 1.04 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: FC OSS have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Feb 2022, when FC OSS won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong Utrecht's record when hosting FC OSS specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Jong Utrecht
3
Draws
6
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and FC OSS?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 1, FC OSS have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when FC OSS 2-1 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and FC OSS?
FC OSS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 56%, FC OSS 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Jong Utrecht) and 40% (FC OSS).
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 36% of games; FC OSS in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play FC OSS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Jong Utrecht's recent matches and 48% of FC OSS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Jong Utrecht's recent games and 40% of FC OSS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong Utrecht and FC OSS tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Jong Utrecht's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 13, as Jong Utrecht and FC OSS drew 0-0 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 2.33 xG and FC OSS 1.43 xG, a combined 3.76. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Jong Utrecht fell 2.3 short of their projected output. FC OSS landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 1.10 / defence 1.07 against FC OSS attack 0.98 / defence 1.17, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 58% | Draw 20% | FC OSS 23%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 56%, FC OSS 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC OSS's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Utrecht 0.74 PPG, FC OSS 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line. FC OSS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.