Jong AZ 1-1 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Emmen at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong AZ vs Emmen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jong AZ and Emmen meet at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Friday 13 December 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jong AZ's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jong AZ have posted 2W 2D 6L at AFAS Trainingscomplex — 0.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Emmen (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Emmen have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Emmen are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Jong AZ 1W, Emmen 2W, 1D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2024, ended 3–2 with Jong AZ winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Jong AZ goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Emmen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong AZ 68% and Emmen 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong AZ 71% | Emmen 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.70 xG and Emmen 2.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 1.261 / defence 1.366 | Emmen attack 1.145 / defence 0.875. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.406. Jong AZ carry an above-average attack strength of 1.261 — their λ of 1.70 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 56 Jong AZ games / 56 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 29% | Draw 22% | Emmen 48%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 3.45 | Draw 4.55 | Emmen 2.08. Emmen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.90. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.90 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 2.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Emmen are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Emmen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 75% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 74% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong AZ 90% | Emmen 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Friday 13 Dec 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 29% | Draw 22% | Emmen 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 74% | xG Jong AZ 1.70 / Emmen 2.20 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 1.261 / def 1.366 | Emmen attack 1.145 / def 0.875 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: Emmen (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
2.20
Emmen xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs Emmen kick off?
Jong AZ vs Emmen kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 December 2024 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs Emmen?
Jong AZ 1 - 1 Emmen.
Where is Jong AZ vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs Emmen part of?
Jong AZ vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 29% chance of winning, Emmen a 48% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Jong AZ and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Emmen?
Record (4 meetings): Jong AZ 1W | Draws 1 | Emmen 2W.
What form are Jong AZ and Emmen in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Emmen (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Jong AZ's attack at 1.26x the league average against Emmen's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Emmen's attack (1.15x) against Jong AZ's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 2.20.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
29%
3.42
22%
4.46
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.6%
Draw
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
3.90
2.20
Emmen xG
3.42
29%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.36
26%
BTTS No
3.80
Clean Sheet
11%
9.00
18%
5.50
Win to Nil
3%
30.75
9%
11.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 7.6 | 8.3 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 6.4 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Jong AZ and 2.20 for Emmen, a combined total of 3.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs Emmen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jong AZ come into this having played 56 games, going 21W 11D 24L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Emmen sit at 1.57 PPG from 56 outings (26W 10D 20L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Jong AZ against 1.57 for Emmen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Jong AZ's home form reads 13W 4D 10L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Emmen have taken 1.59 points per game from 27 outings (13W 4D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong AZ are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.55 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Blended
Emmen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and Emmen in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 21W 11D 24L in their last 56 games (1.32 PPG), while Emmen have gone 26W 10D 20L in their last 56 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or Emmen away?
Jong AZ's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.59 PPG; Emmen away: 1.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Emmen have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Emmen won 3-0 on 8 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong AZ have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Emmen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Jong AZ
2
Draws
5
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Emmen?
From 9 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 2, Emmen have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Emmen 3-1 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and Emmen?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 67%, Emmen 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Jong AZ and 67% for Emmen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play Emmen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Jong AZ's games and 59% of Emmen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong AZ vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Jong AZ's matches and 67% of Emmen's.
Do Jong AZ and Emmen tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Emmen in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong AZ and Emmen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ and Emmen finished level at 1-1 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 19, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.70 xG and Emmen 2.20 xG, a combined 3.90. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Emmen landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.26 / defence 1.37 against Emmen attack 1.15 / defence 0.88, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 29% | Draw 22% | Emmen 48%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 71%, Emmen 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Emmen's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.32 PPG, Emmen 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.22 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.