Jong AZ 2-2 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong AZ vs Den Bosch fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Den Bosch travel to AFAS Trainingscomplex to take on Jong AZ. The game is scheduled for Monday 23 February 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong AZ stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Jong AZ have gone 1W 0D 9L this season (10 games, 0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.30 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at AFAS Trainingscomplex this season.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Den Bosch have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Den Bosch have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Jong AZ 1.20 PPG, Den Bosch 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Jong AZ have won 2, Den Bosch 3, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2025, ended 3–2 with Jong AZ winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Jong AZ in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Den Bosch in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong AZ 66% and Den Bosch 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 71% | Den Bosch 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.67 xG and Den Bosch 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 0.852 / defence 1.382 | Den Bosch attack 0.911 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.688 / away 1.470. Data: 65 Jong AZ games / 65 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 35% | Draw 23% | Den Bosch 42%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 2.86 | Draw 4.35 | Den Bosch 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.85) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Den Bosch at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Den Bosch offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.52 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong AZ 50% | Den Bosch 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 23 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 35% | Draw 23% | Den Bosch 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 69% | xG Jong AZ 1.67 / Den Bosch 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 0.852 / def 1.382 | Den Bosch attack 0.911 / def 1.163 | league avg home 1.688 / away 1.470 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.85
Den Bosch xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs Den Bosch kick off?
Jong AZ vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 23 February 2026 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs Den Bosch?
Jong AZ 2 - 2 Den Bosch.
Where is Jong AZ vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs Den Bosch part of?
Jong AZ vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 35% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 42% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Jong AZ and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Den Bosch?
Record (9 meetings): Jong AZ 2W | Draws 4 | Den Bosch 3W.
What form are Jong AZ and Den Bosch in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Den Bosch (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Jong AZ's attack rating (0.85) and Den Bosch's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Den Bosch's attack versus Jong AZ's defence, projects 1.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
35%
2.88
23%
4.29
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
3.52
1.85
Den Bosch xG
2.88
35%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.23
Clean Sheet
16%
6.37
19%
5.33
Win to Nil
5%
18.34
8%
12.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.1 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.6 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.85 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jong AZ come into this having played 65 games, going 23W 12D 30L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Den Bosch sit at 1.38 PPG from 65 outings (25W 15D 25L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong AZ on 1.25 PPG, Den Bosch on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Jong AZ's home form reads 8W 6D 18L across 32 games on their own ground, a 0.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Den Bosch have taken 1.03 points per game from 32 outings (9W 6D 17L).
Goals in Recent Form
Jong AZ are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.45 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 65 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Blended
Den Bosch
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 23W 12D 30L in their last 65 games (1.25 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 25W 15D 25L in their last 65 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or Den Bosch away?
Den Bosch's away record (1.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 0.94 PPG; Den Bosch away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2024, when Den Bosch won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong AZ's record when hosting Den Bosch specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jong AZ
5
Draws
3
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 2, Den Bosch have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Jong AZ 2-2 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and Den Bosch?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 66%, Den Bosch 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Jong AZ and 69% for Den Bosch. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play Den Bosch?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Jong AZ's games and 56% of Den Bosch's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong AZ vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Jong AZ's matches and 69% of Den Bosch's.
Do Jong AZ and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong AZ and Den Bosch share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 28, as Jong AZ and Den Bosch drew 2-2 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.67 xG and Den Bosch 1.85 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 0.85 / defence 1.38 against Den Bosch attack 0.91 / defence 1.16, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 35% | Draw 23% | Den Bosch 42%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 71%, Den Bosch 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Den Bosch's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.25 PPG, Den Bosch 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.