Jong AZ 3-3 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours ADO Den Haag (52%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Jong AZ face ADO Den Haag.

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Analysis

ADO Den Haag make the trip to AFAS Trainingscomplex to face Jong AZ in Eerste Divisie (matchday 16). The match kicks off on Friday 22 November 2024 at 19:00 UK time.

Form

Jong AZ (all games): 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Jong AZ have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

ADO Den Haag's record over their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

ADO Den Haag's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. ADO Den Haag are 0.60 PPG clear of Jong AZ over their recent games (1.60 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Jong AZ's last 10 home games and ADO Den Haag's last 10 away games) — Jong AZ have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, ADO Den Haag in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head sample leans to ADO Den Haag, who have 5 wins from 6 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draw.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 23 Dec 2023, ended Jong AZ 1–2 ADO Den Haag — a ADO Den Haag win.

The H2H data backs the away side. ADO Den Haag have won 5 of 6 H2H matches, and at 3.3 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading Data

Jong AZ goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

ADO Den Haag goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong AZ 67% and ADO Den Haag 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong AZ 71% | ADO Den Haag 67%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Jong AZ surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while ADO Den Haag have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 44% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.63 xG and ADO Den Haag 2.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 1.278 / defence 1.306 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.257 / defence 0.845. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.389. Jong AZ carry an above-average attack rating of 1.278 — their 1.63 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. ADO Den Haag have an above-average attack rating of 1.257, which lifts their away xG to 2.28. Jong AZ's defence rating of 1.306 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing ADO Den Haag's projected output up. Data: built from Jong AZ's last 52 games and ADO Den Haag's last 52.

Result probabilities: Jong AZ 27% | Draw 21% | ADO Den Haag 52%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 3.69 | Draw 4.84 | ADO Den Haag 1.92. ADO Den Haag hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS Yes probability 72% | Total xG 3.91. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.91 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% — both xG figures (1.63 / 2.28) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates ADO Den Haag as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.

The Poisson model projects 3.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Jong AZ's last 10 home games and ADO Den Haag's last 10 away games) averaging 4.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Jong AZ 90% (last 10 home games) | ADO Den Haag 60% (last 10 away games).

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