De Graafschap 4-0 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours De Graafschap (67%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as De Graafschap face FC OSS.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
De Graafschap and FC OSS meet at Stadion De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Friday 22 November 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
De Graafschap (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, De Graafschap have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stadion De Vijverberg — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC OSS have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC OSS have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. De Graafschap's 1.90 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of FC OSS's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Across 6 previous meetings, De Graafschap are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 1 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2024, ended 2–1 with De Graafschap winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both De Graafschap and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
De Graafschap half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
FC OSS half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 67% versus FC OSS 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 71% | FC OSS 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 2.20 xG and FC OSS 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.437 / defence 1.014 | FC OSS attack 0.620 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.389. De Graafschap carry an above-average attack strength of 1.437 — their λ of 2.20 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 52 De Graafschap games / 52 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 67% | Draw 20% | FC OSS 13%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 1.49 | Draw 5.00 | FC OSS 7.69. The model has a clear lean to De Graafschap (67%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 80% | FC OSS 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 22 Nov 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 67% | Draw 20% | FC OSS 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 52% | xG De Graafschap 2.20 / FC OSS 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.437 / def 1.014 | FC OSS attack 0.620 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (67%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.20
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
0.87
FC OSS xG
52%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs FC OSS kick off?
De Graafschap vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 22 November 2024 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs FC OSS?
De Graafschap 4 - 0 FC OSS.
Where is De Graafschap vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs FC OSS part of?
De Graafschap vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 67% chance of winning, FC OSS a 13% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both De Graafschap and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and FC OSS?
Record (6 meetings): De Graafschap 4W | Draws 1 | FC OSS 1W.
What form are De Graafschap and FC OSS in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. FC OSS (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about De Graafschap vs FC OSS?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from De Graafschap's attack rating (1.44) and FC OSS's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 2.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC OSS's attack (0.62x) against De Graafschap's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
67%
1.49
20%
5.10
13%
7.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.20
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.07
0.87
FC OSS xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.10
20%
Draw
7.58
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
11%
9.03
Win to Nil
28%
3.56
1%
68.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.2 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 2.20 expected goals for De Graafschap and 0.87 for FC OSS, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs FC OSS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
De Graafschap come into this having played 52 games, going 25W 11D 16L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-D. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC OSS sit at 0.96 PPG from 52 outings (14W 8D 30L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.69 PPG clear of FC OSS — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
De Graafschap's home form reads 16W 4D 5L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.08 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.65 PPG overall — De Graafschap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC OSS have taken 0.56 points per game from 25 outings (3W 5D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
De Graafschap are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 0.83 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and FC OSS in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 25W 11D 16L in their last 52 games (1.65 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 14W 8D 30L in their last 52 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or FC OSS away?
De Graafschap's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 2.08 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won 4-0 on 22 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC OSS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
De Graafschap
2
Draws
1
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and FC OSS?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 7, FC OSS have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 20 December 2025, when FC OSS 2-3 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and FC OSS?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
FC OSS see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 68%, FC OSS 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 72% (De Graafschap) and 44% (FC OSS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 16% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC OSS in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play FC OSS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 32% of FC OSS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is De Graafschap vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of De Graafschap's matches and 44% of FC OSS's.
Do De Graafschap and FC OSS tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant De Graafschap run riot with a 4-0 hammering of FC OSS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat FC OSS 4-0 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 16, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 2.20 xG and FC OSS 0.87 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. De Graafschap beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC OSS landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.44 / defence 1.01 against FC OSS attack 0.62 / defence 1.01, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 67% | Draw 20% | FC OSS 13%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 71%, FC OSS 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
FC OSS's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.96. That form edge translated into the three points. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. FC OSS (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.