FC Volendam vs De Graafschap – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours FC Volendam (68%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC Volendam face De Graafschap.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Volendam host De Graafschap at Kras Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 30 October 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Volendam — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Volendam's home record at Kras Stadion: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, FC Volendam have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, FC Volendam have won 3, De Graafschap 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2024, ended 2–1 with FC Volendam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
FC Volendam in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 60% and De Graafschap 77% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 60% | De Graafschap 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 2.61 xG and De Graafschap 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.371 / defence 0.822 | De Graafschap attack 0.982 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.856 / away 1.461. FC Volendam carry an above-average attack strength of 1.371 — their λ of 2.61 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 11 FC Volendam games / 48 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 68% | Draw 17% | De Graafschap 15%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 1.47 | Draw 5.88 | De Graafschap 6.67. The model has a clear lean to FC Volendam (68%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.79. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.79 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.61 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Volendam at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 50% | De Graafschap 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 30 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 68% | Draw 17% | De Graafschap 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 64% | xG FC Volendam 2.61 / De Graafschap 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.371 / def 0.822 | De Graafschap attack 0.982 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.856 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.61
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.18
De Graafschap xG
64%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs De Graafschap kick off?
FC Volendam vs De Graafschap is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 30 October 2026 at Kras Stadion.
Where is FC Volendam vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs De Graafschap part of?
FC Volendam vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 68% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 15% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both FC Volendam and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and De Graafschap?
Record (4 meetings): FC Volendam 3W | Draws 0 | De Graafschap 1W.
What form are FC Volendam and De Graafschap in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Volendam's attack at 1.37x the league average against De Graafschap's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 2.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (7.9%), 1-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
68%
1.47
17%
5.95
15%
6.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
2 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.61
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.79
1.18
De Graafschap xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.95
17%
Draw
6.60
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
7%
13.57
Win to Nil
21%
4.78
1%
89.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 5.9 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 2.61 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.18 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.79.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs De Graafschap?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Volendam's recent record stands at 14W 9D 24L from 47 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 20W 12D 15L across 47 games — 1.53 PPG, with L-W-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours De Graafschap by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Volendam heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Volendam have managed 11W 5D 7L from 23 games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — FC Volendam are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 8W 7D 8L across 23 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Volendam are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.83 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap in 77%.
Last 47 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 14W 9D 24L in their last 47 games (1.09 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 20W 12D 15L in their last 47 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or De Graafschap away?
FC Volendam's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.65 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Sep 2021, when FC Volendam won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Volendam's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
FC Volendam
0
Draws
1
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and De Graafschap?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 3, De Graafschap have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 22 December 2024, when FC Volendam 2-1 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and De Graafschap?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Volendam at 70%, De Graafschap at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for FC Volendam and 74% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of FC Volendam's games and 74% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of FC Volendam's matches and 74% of De Graafschap's.
Do FC Volendam and De Graafschap tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.