FC OSS 0-3 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC OSS vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC OSS host Jong AZ at Frans Heesen Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 13 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC OSS — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Frans Heesen Stadion, FC OSS have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong AZ stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Jong AZ have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC OSS at 1.00 PPG versus Jong AZ's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for FC OSS, 3 for Jong AZ and 3 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with FC OSS winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
FC OSS in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Jong AZ in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 48% versus Jong AZ 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 47% | Jong AZ 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.69 xG and Jong AZ 2.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.938 / defence 1.129 | Jong AZ attack 1.410 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.768 / away 1.490. Jong AZ have an above-average attack strength of 1.410 — the away xG of 2.37 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 64 FC OSS games / 64 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 26% | Draw 21% | Jong AZ 52%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 3.85 | Draw 4.76 | Jong AZ 1.92. Jong AZ hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 75% | Total xG 4.07. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.07 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 2.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jong AZ as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.07 combined xG gives a 77% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 75% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC OSS 70% | Jong AZ 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 13 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 26% | Draw 21% | Jong AZ 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 75% | xG FC OSS 1.69 / Jong AZ 2.37 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 0.938 / def 1.129 | Jong AZ attack 1.410 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.768 / away 1.490 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
2.37
Jong AZ xG
75%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs Jong AZ kick off?
FC OSS vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 February 2026 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs Jong AZ?
FC OSS 0 - 3 Jong AZ.
Where is FC OSS vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs Jong AZ part of?
FC OSS vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 26% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 52% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both FC OSS and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Jong AZ?
Record (9 meetings): FC OSS 3W | Draws 3 | Jong AZ 3W.
What form are FC OSS and Jong AZ in?
FC OSS (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Jong AZ (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC OSS's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Jong AZ's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus FC OSS's defence, projects 2.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 8.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.8%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
26%
3.78
21%
4.68
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
6.9%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
FC OSS xG
Total xG
4.07
2.37
Jong AZ xG
3.78
26%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.34
25%
BTTS No
3.98
Clean Sheet
9%
10.73
18%
5.43
Win to Nil
2%
40.55
10%
10.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.8 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are FC OSS and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for FC OSS and 2.37 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 4.07.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC OSS come into this having played 64 games, going 14W 22D 28L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-L. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jong AZ sit at 1.22 PPG from 64 outings (22W 12D 30L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC OSS on 1.00 PPG, Jong AZ on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
FC OSS's home form reads 11W 7D 14L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong AZ have taken 1.50 points per game from 32 outings (14W 6D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
FC OSS are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.77 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ in 67%.
Last 64 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 14W 22D 28L in their last 64 games (1.00 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 22W 12D 30L in their last 64 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or Jong AZ away?
Jong AZ's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.25 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Oct 2023, when Jong AZ won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC OSS's record when hosting Jong AZ specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC OSS
3
Draws
4
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 3, Jong AZ have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when FC OSS 0-3 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and Jong AZ?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 53%, Jong AZ 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for FC OSS and 69% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC OSS have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play Jong AZ?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of FC OSS's games and 69% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC OSS vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of FC OSS's matches and 69% of Jong AZ's.
Do FC OSS and Jong AZ tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jong AZ run riot with a 0-3 hammering of FC OSS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ beat FC OSS 0-3 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.69 xG and Jong AZ 2.37 xG, a combined 4.07. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. FC OSS fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.94 / defence 1.13 against Jong AZ attack 1.41 / defence 1.02, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 26% | Draw 21% | Jong AZ 52%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 47%, Jong AZ 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jong AZ's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC OSS 1.00 PPG, Jong AZ 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong AZ win broke the near-deadlock. FC OSS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.