FC Eindhoven 1-0 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jong PSV U21 at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Jong PSV U21 travel to Jan Louwers Stadion to take on FC Eindhoven. The game is scheduled for Friday 29 November 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Eindhoven — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Jan Louwers Stadion, FC Eindhoven have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong PSV U21 have recorded 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong PSV U21 have posted 5W 0D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Eindhoven 1.10 PPG, Jong PSV U21 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for FC Eindhoven, 3 for Jong PSV U21 and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 4.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2024, ended 2–5 with Jong PSV U21 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC Eindhoven in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Jong PSV U21 in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 48% versus Jong PSV U21 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 48% | Jong PSV U21 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 0.90 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 0.585 / defence 1.115 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.005 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.429. FC Eindhoven's attack strength of 0.585 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 54 FC Eindhoven games / 54 Jong PSV U21 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 20% | Draw 27% | Jong PSV U21 53%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 5.00 | Draw 3.70 | Jong PSV U21 1.89. Jong PSV U21 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong PSV U21 are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong PSV U21 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Eindhoven 30% | Jong PSV U21 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 29 Nov 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 20% | Draw 27% | Jong PSV U21 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG FC Eindhoven 0.90 / Jong PSV U21 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 0.585 / def 1.115 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.005 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.545 / away 1.429 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (53%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Jong PSV U21 xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21 kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 29 November 2024 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21?
FC Eindhoven 1 - 0 Jong PSV U21.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 20% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 53% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both FC Eindhoven and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Jong PSV U21?
Record (6 meetings): FC Eindhoven 1W | Draws 2 | Jong PSV U21 3W.
What form are FC Eindhoven and Jong PSV U21 in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Eindhoven's attacking strength (0.58x league average) is weighed against Jong PSV U21's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. The same calculation in reverse, Jong PSV U21's attack versus FC Eindhoven's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 0-2 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
20%
4.95
27%
3.75
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
0 – 2
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
2.50
1.60
Jong PSV U21 xG
4.95
20%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
20%
4.96
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
4%
24.56
22%
4.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 13.2 | 10.6 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.60 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Eindhoven's recent record stands at 14W 20D 20L from 54 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong PSV U21, meanwhile, have gone 16W 9D 29L across 54 games — 1.06 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Eindhoven on 1.15 PPG, Jong PSV U21 on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Eindhoven have managed 5W 11D 10L from 26 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong PSV U21's away record stands at 9W 3D 14L across 26 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.61 scored and 2.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 in 67%.
Last 54 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Blended
Jong PSV U21
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 14W 20D 20L in their last 54 games (1.15 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 16W 9D 29L in their last 54 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
Jong PSV U21's away record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 1.00 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Eindhoven and Jong PSV U21 runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Eindhoven have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Dec 2025, when FC Eindhoven won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Eindhoven's record when hosting Jong PSV U21 specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
FC Eindhoven
2
Draws
3
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Jong PSV U21?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 5, Jong PSV U21 have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Jong PSV U21 1-2 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and Jong PSV U21?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 42%, Jong PSV U21 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (FC Eindhoven) and 73% (Jong PSV U21). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 15% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven have failed to score in 42% of games; Jong PSV U21 in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play Jong PSV U21?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of FC Eindhoven's recent matches and 58% of Jong PSV U21's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 42% of FC Eindhoven's matches and 73% of Jong PSV U21's.
Do FC Eindhoven and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Eindhoven defy the odds to beat Jong PSV U21 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven beat Jong PSV U21 1-0 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 0.90 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.60 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Jong PSV U21 landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 0.58 / defence 1.11 against Jong PSV U21 attack 1.00 / defence 0.99, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 20% | Draw 27% | Jong PSV U21 53%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a FC Eindhoven win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 48%, Jong PSV U21 76%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.15 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Eindhoven win broke the near-deadlock. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.