Emmen 0-1 Telstar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Emmen (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Emmen face Telstar.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Telstar travel to De Oude Meerdijk to take on Emmen. The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 October 2024, 11:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Emmen stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Emmen at De Oude Meerdijk this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at De Oude Meerdijk this season.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Telstar have recorded 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Telstar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Telstar away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Emmen are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Emmen register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Telstar in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Emmen hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 4 previous encounters compared to 0 for Telstar, with 1 draws in between.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2024, ended 3–2 with Emmen winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Emmen and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Emmen in-play tendencies (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Telstar in-play tendencies (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 53% versus Telstar 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 59% | Telstar 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.49 xG and Telstar 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.958 / defence 1.041 | Telstar attack 0.901 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.465. Data: 49 Emmen games / 49 Telstar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 38% | Draw 29% | Telstar 33%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Telstar 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Emmen at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Emmen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Emmen 60% | Telstar 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Telstar | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 38% | Draw 29% | Telstar 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 60% | xG Emmen 1.49 / Telstar 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.958 / def 1.041 | Telstar attack 0.901 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.465 • Poisson stance: Emmen (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Telstar xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs Telstar kick off?
Emmen vs Telstar kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Telstar?
Emmen 0 - 1 Telstar.
Where is Emmen vs Telstar being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Telstar part of?
Emmen vs Telstar is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Telstar?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 38% chance of winning, Telstar a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Telstar?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Emmen and Telstar will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs Telstar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Telstar?
Record (4 meetings): Emmen 3W | Draws 1 | Telstar 0W.
What form are Emmen and Telstar in?
Emmen (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Telstar (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Emmen vs Telstar?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Emmen's attack at 0.96x the league average against Telstar's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Telstar's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
38%
2.62
29%
3.50
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Emmen xG
Total xG
2.86
1.38
Telstar xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
10%
10.35
8%
13.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.9 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.7 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Telstar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Emmen and Telstar expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Emmen and 1.38 for Telstar, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Telstar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 49 outings, Emmen have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 22W 9D 18L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Telstar's form line: 12W 14D 23L from 49 games, 1.02 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-D. The sample for Telstar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Emmen are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Telstar.
Venue Form
On home soil, Emmen have posted 1.52 PPG from 25 outings (11W 5D 9L).
On the road, Telstar have gone 4W 6D 15L from 25 away games — 0.72 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Emmen are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Telstar are on 1.29 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Telstar in 61%.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Blended
Telstar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and Telstar in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 22W 9D 18L in their last 49 games (1.53 PPG), while Telstar have gone 12W 14D 23L in their last 49 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Telstar away?
Emmen's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.52 PPG; Telstar away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Telstar have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 May 2025, when Telstar won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Emmen's record when hosting Telstar specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Emmen
1
Draws
2
Telstar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Telstar?
From 6 meetings on record, Emmen have won 3, Telstar have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Telstar last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2025, when Telstar 3-0 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Telstar?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 48%, Telstar 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Emmen) and 44% (Telstar).
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Telstar in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Telstar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play Telstar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Emmen's recent matches and 56% of Telstar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Emmen vs Telstar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Emmen's recent games and 44% of Telstar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Emmen and Telstar tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Telstar in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Telstar defy the odds to beat Emmen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Telstar beat Emmen 0-1 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 12, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.49 xG and Telstar 1.38 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Emmen fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.96 / defence 1.04 against Telstar attack 0.90 / defence 1.03, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 38% | Draw 29% | Telstar 33%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Telstar win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 59%, Telstar 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Telstar's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with Telstar winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Emmen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward. Telstar (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.